Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Preview: Showdown at Wrigley Field – September 15, 2025
As the MLB regular season winds down, the Chicago Cubs are set to host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on September 15, 2025. This late-season matchup carries significant implications as both teams look to solidify their playoff aspirations. With the Cubs clinging to a narrow lead in the National League Central and the Pirates battling for a wildcard spot, this game promises high stakes and intense competition.
Analysis Content
Standings and Context
The Chicago Cubs enter this game with a record of 85-63, sitting atop the NL Central Division. They’ve maintained a slim margin over the second-place St. Louis Cardinals, making every remaining game pivotal for clinching the division title. The Cubs have shown resilience throughout the season, overcoming injuries and slumps with contributions from both young talent and seasoned veterans.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates, at 81-67, are locked in a dogfight for one of the two National League wildcard spots. They trail the San Francisco Giants by a game for the final playoff position. The Pirates have been one of the surprise teams this season, leveraging a mix of emerging stars and savvy veteran leadership to overachieve expectations.
Recent Performance
Chicago Cubs:
In their last 10 games, the Cubs have posted a 6-4 record, including a recent three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds. Their offense has been clicking, averaging 5.7 runs per game over this stretch. Key moments include a come-from-behind victory against the Reds where they scored four runs in the eighth inning to seal the win. However, their bullpen has shown vulnerability, blowing two save opportunities during this period.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games, riding a four-game winning streak into this matchup. They recently captured a series victory against the New York Mets, highlighted by a thrilling walk-off win in extra innings. The Pirates’ pitching staff, particularly the bullpen, has been stellar, posting a collective ERA of 2.85 over the past 10 games.
Head-to-Head History
This season, the Cubs and Pirates have faced off 12 times, with the Cubs winning eight of those encounters. Historically, the Cubs have had the upper hand, winning 10 of the last 15 meetings dating back to the previous season. Wrigley Field has been kind to the Cubs in this rivalry, where they’ve won five of the six games played against Pittsburgh this year.
Pitching Matchups
Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs will send right-hander Marcus Stroman to the mound. Stroman has been the anchor of the Cubs’ rotation with a 3.25 ERA, a WHIP of 1.15, and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) this season. His last outing saw him pitch seven innings of two-run ball with eight strikeouts against the Cardinals.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
Opposing him will be the Pirates’ ace, left-hander Mitch Keller. Keller has emerged as a dominant force with a 2.95 ERA, a WHIP of 1.10, and a K/9 of 9.3. He recently pitched a complete game shutout against the Phillies, striking out 10 and further cementing his status as one of the league’s top pitchers.
Key Position-Player Matchups
Chicago Cubs:
1. Cody Bellinger (OF): Batting .285 with an OPS of .850, 28 home runs, and 85 RBIs. Bellinger’s power and plate discipline make him a constant threat, particularly against right-handed pitchers like Keller.
- Nico Hoerner (2B): Hitting .295 with an OPS of .820 and 42 stolen bases, Hoerner is the catalyst at the top of the Cubs lineup. His speed and on-base ability will be crucial against Keller’s precision.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
1. Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B): With a .270 average, OPS of .815, 20 homers, and 75 RBIs, Hayes is a key figure in the Pirates lineup. His ability to handle high-velocity pitches will be tested against Stroman.
- Oneil Cruz (SS): Batting .265 with an OPS of .828, 22 home runs, and 50 RBIs. Cruz’s combination of power and speed poses a dual threat, and his aggressive approach will challenge Stroman’s finesse.
Situational Factors
The game will be played at Wrigley Field, traditionally a hitter-friendly park, especially when the wind is blowing out. The weather forecast predicts a mild evening with temperatures in the mid-70s and a light wind blowing out to left-center field, which could aid power hitters.
Injuries include Cubs closer Adbert Alzolay, who remains day-to-day with shoulder fatigue, and Pirates catcher Henry Davis, out with a wrist injury. Both absences could significantly impact their respective teams’ strategies.
Advanced Metrics
Chicago Cubs:
– wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus): 108, indicating their offense is 8% better than league average, benefiting from a balanced lineup that excels in getting on base and driving in runs.
– FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): Stroman’s FIP is 3.10, suggesting his ERA accurately reflects his quality of pitching, supported by a strong defense.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
– WAR (Wins Above Replacement): Mitch Keller boasts a WAR of 5.6, underscoring his significant contribution to the Pirates’ success this season.
– Defensive Runs Saved (DRS): The Pirates have a team DRS of +35, highlighting their solid defensive efforts, particularly in the infield.
Prediction
This matchup is a classic pitcher’s duel that could be decided by the bullpens and timely hitting. Given the Cubs’ recent form, home-field advantage, and their historical success against the Pirates this season, I project a narrow victory for the Cubs.
Projected Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4, Pittsburgh Pirates 3
Confidence Level: I’m 65% confident in the Cubs’ victory due to their robust lineup and the familiarity of Wrigley Field, though Keller’s dominant presence on the mound poses a significant hurdle.
As both teams vie for postseason berths, expect a tightly contested and strategically rich game that underscores the drama of September baseball.
Today MLB Pitcher Prop Bets Generator
| Player Name | Prop | Prediction | Line | Trends | Last 3 Games | Wind | Team | Odds | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brandon Sproat | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 3.0 | Over Hit 1/1 | Neutral |  New York Mets | -105 | 13-09-2025 (20:10) UTC |
| Brandon Sproat | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 7.0 | Over Hit 1/1 | Neutral | New York Mets | -102 | 13-09-2025 (20:10) UTC |
 Brayan Bello | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.04 | Under Hit 1/3 | Neutral |  Boston Red Sox | 120 | 13-09-2025 (20:10) UTC |
| Brayan Bello | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 5.5 | 4.38 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Boston Red Sox | -154 | 13-09-2025 (20:10) UTC |
 Bryan Woo | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 1.5 | 2.11 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Seattle Mariners | -108 | 14-09-2025 (01:40) UTC |
| Bryan Woo | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 7.5 | 6.36 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Seattle Mariners | -112 | 14-09-2025 (01:40) UTC |
 Bryce Elder | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 3.28 | Over Hit 0/3 | Neutral |  Atlanta Braves | -120 | 13-09-2025 (23:15) UTC |
| Bryce Elder | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 4.44 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Atlanta Braves | 113 | 13-09-2025 (23:15) UTC |
 Bubba Chandler | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 3.0 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Pittsburgh Pirates | 100 | 13-09-2025 (20:05) UTC |
| Bubba Chandler | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 4.5 | 3.0 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Pittsburgh Pirates | -138 | 13-09-2025 (20:05) UTC |
 Clayton Kershaw | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.89 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Los Angeles Dodgers | -158 | 14-09-2025 (01:05) UTC |
| Clayton Kershaw | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 3.63 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Dodgers | -153 | 14-09-2025 (01:05) UTC |
 Colin Rea | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 2.28 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Chicago Cubs | 112 | 13-09-2025 (18:20) UTC |
| Colin Rea | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 3.5 | 3.59 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad | Chicago Cubs | 150 | 13-09-2025 (18:20) UTC |
 Davis Martin | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 2.48 | Over Hit 2/3 | Good |  Chicago White Sox | -113 | 13-09-2025 (22:10) UTC |
| Davis Martin | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 4.0 | Over Hit 2/3 | Good | Chicago White Sox | -158 | 13-09-2025 (22:10) UTC |
 Drew Rasmussen | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.46 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Tampa Bay Rays | -168 | 13-09-2025 (18:20) UTC |
| Drew Rasmussen | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 3.5 | 4.18 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad | Tampa Bay Rays | 148 | 13-09-2025 (18:20) UTC |
 Dylan Cease | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 7.5 | 6.72 | Under Hit 3/3 | Bad |  San Diego Padres | 114 | 14-09-2025 (00:41) UTC |
 Hunter Brown | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 1.5 | 1.5 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Houston Astros | 119 | 13-09-2025 (23:15) UTC |
| Hunter Brown | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 6.79 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Houston Astros | 102 | 13-09-2025 (23:15) UTC |
 Hunter Greene | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.62 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Cincinnati Reds | -121 | 14-09-2025 (02:06) UTC |
| Hunter Greene | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 7.5 | 7.06 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Cincinnati Reds | -126 | 14-09-2025 (02:06) UTC |
 Jacob Misiorowski | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 1.5 | 2.08 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Milwaukee Brewers | -120 | 14-09-2025 (00:15) UTC |
| Jacob Misiorowski | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 6.5 | 6.42 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Milwaukee Brewers | -129 | 14-09-2025 (00:15) UTC |
 Janson Junk | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 3.56 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral |  Miami Marlins | -155 | 13-09-2025 (20:10) UTC |
 Joe Ryan | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 1.5 | 2.07 | Over Hit 2/3 | Good |  Minnesota Twins | -161 | 13-09-2025 (23:10) UTC |
| Joe Ryan | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 6.29 | Over Hit 2/3 | Good | Minnesota Twins | -154 | 13-09-2025 (23:10) UTC |
 Logan Webb | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.13 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  San Francisco Giants | -140 | 14-09-2025 (01:05) UTC |
| Logan Webb | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 6.7 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | San Francisco Giants | -108 | 14-09-2025 (01:05) UTC |
 Luis Severino | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 2.92 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Oakland Athletics | -103 | 14-09-2025 (02:06) UTC |
| Luis Severino | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 5.5 | 4.38 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Oakland Athletics | -154 | 14-09-2025 (02:06) UTC |
 Max Fried | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.03 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  New York Yankees | -116 | 13-09-2025 (20:10) UTC |
| Max Fried | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 5.62 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral | New York Yankees | -114 | 13-09-2025 (20:10) UTC |
 Max Scherzer | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 2.57 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Toronto Blue Jays | 121 | 13-09-2025 (19:07) UTC |
| Max Scherzer | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 6.5 | 5.0 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Toronto Blue Jays | -123 | 13-09-2025 (19:07) UTC |
 Parker Messick | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.25 | Under Hit 2/3 | Good |  Cleveland Guardians | -159 | 13-09-2025 (22:10) UTC |
| Parker Messick | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 4.5 | Over Hit 1/3 | Good | Cleveland Guardians | -136 | 13-09-2025 (22:10) UTC |
 Patrick Corbin | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.56 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Texas Rangers | 102 | 13-09-2025 (20:10) UTC |
| Patrick Corbin | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 4.41 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Texas Rangers | -186 | 13-09-2025 (20:10) UTC |
 Ryne Nelson | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.77 | Under Hit 2/3 | Good |  Arizona Diamondbacks | 104 | 13-09-2025 (23:10) UTC |
| Ryne Nelson | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 4.5 | 3.93 | Under Hit 2/3 | Good | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100 | 13-09-2025 (23:10) UTC |
 Sonny Gray | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 2.79 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  St. Louis Cardinals | 128 | 14-09-2025 (00:15) UTC |
| Sonny Gray | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 6.17 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | St. Louis Cardinals | 119 | 14-09-2025 (00:15) UTC |
 Taijuan Walker | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 1.67 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Philadelphia Phillies | -116 | 13-09-2025 (22:05) UTC |
| Taijuan Walker | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 2.5 | 2.53 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Philadelphia Phillies | 130 | 13-09-2025 (22:05) UTC |
 Tomoyuki Sugano | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.67 | Under Hit 0/3 | Neutral |  Baltimore Orioles | 117 | 13-09-2025 (19:07) UTC |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 3.5 | 3.56 | Under Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Baltimore Orioles | -166 | 13-09-2025 (19:07) UTC |
