The Boston Red Sox face the Atlanta Braves on Sunday, June 1, 2025, in an interleague clash. Boston starts lefty Garrett Crochet, while Atlanta counters with fireballer Spencer Strider. Oddsmakers peg Atlanta as -161 favorites (Boston +136) with a total of 9.0 runs. The Red Sox are desperate to snap a five-game losing streak
Pitching Matchup Analysis
The visiting Red Sox give Garrett Crochet his first start of 2025 after transitioning from the bullpen. Crochet’s season stats are limited – he’s 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in relief appearances, showing swing-and-miss stuff but untested in a starter’s workload. Control could be a concern as he stretches out. The Braves will lean on Spencer Strider, their ace who’s 5-3 with a 3.21 ERA. Strider has racked up strikeouts (over 12 K/9) and carries a 1.07 WHIP through ~70 innings. His elite 5:1 K/BB ratio and only about 0.9 HR/9 underscore his dominance. 【*】Strider’s high-velocity fastball and slider combo should feast on a Red Sox lineup that has looked lost. Huge edge on the mound goes to Atlanta – Strider is a proven workhorse, whereas Crochet likely won’t go deep.
Key Factors (Park, Weather, Umpire)
Truist Park historically favors pitchers more than you’d expect in hot Atlanta – it had a home run factor of just 88 (12% below average) last yearoddsshark.com. However, warm summer weather can change that. Sunday’s game-time forecast in Atlanta is 79°F with overcast skies. A light 8 mph breeze and ~40% chance of a shower are expected. Humidity could be high, but if clouds persist, the ball may not carry as much. The home plate umpire assignment isn’t confirmed; Atlanta would love a generous strike zone for Strider’s sake. If an offense-friendly ump shows up, it might only help marginally – Strider misses bats regardless. Overall, conditions are fairly neutral, perhaps slightly damp which could suppress offense a bit.
Team Trends (Last 5, Injuries)
Boston is reeling – they are 0-5 in their last 5 games and just dropped two straight in this series. The Red Sox offense has been inconsistent, averaging under 3 runs during the skid. Injuries haven’t helped: Rafael Devers has been dealing with a sore hamstring (day-to-day) and the lineup feels thin. In contrast, the Braves, despite a recent hiccup, have won 1 of their last 5 (1-4) – not great, but they did explode for 8 runs yesterday. Atlanta’s offense is potent, led by Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson. The Braves are mostly healthy; only Eddie Rosario is nursing a minor ankle sprain. Atlanta is also 27-31 on the season and looking to build momentum. At home, with their ace on the mound, this is a prime get-right spot for the Braves against a slumping Boston squad.
Our Pick & Bet Recommendation
Our Pick: Braves 6 – Red Sox 2. We’re confidently backing Atlanta -1.5 on the run line. With Strider likely to dominate and Boston’s bats cold (scoring just 2.2 runs/game over the last five), Atlanta should win by multiple runs. The moneyline (-161) is a bit steep, so the run line offers value given the mismatch on paper. We also lean Under 9 runs here. Boston may struggle to scratch out more than a couple runs against Strider, and Crochet (with Boston’s solid bullpen behind him) might keep Atlanta from hitting the total on their own. Note that the under is 9-2 in Boston’s last 11 games. Consider pairing Braves ML with the under in a parlay for a plus payout. In sum, look for Atlanta’s ace to carry the day and bet the Braves to win (-1.5) and the under 9.0.
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