MLB Matchup Preview: Chicago Cubs vs. New York Yankees
As we approach the mid-summer classic, the Chicago Cubs are set to face off against the New York Yankees on July 11, 2025, in what promises to be an exhilarating Major League Baseball showdown. While these two storied franchises don’t share a heated rivalry, the matchup is significant due to its implications on the playoff race. The Yankees are battling for the top spot in the AL East, while the Cubs are clawing to stay relevant in the wild card race in a competitive NL Central. With both teams vying for crucial mid-season victories, this game carries extra weight as they look to solidify their postseason aspirations.
Recent Performance Analysis
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have had a roller-coaster season thus far, and their recent performance reflects that inconsistency. Over their last 10 games, Chicago has posted a 5-5 record, showcasing their struggles to maintain momentum. They recently snapped a three-game losing streak with a decisive 7-3 victory over the Cincinnati Reds, highlighting their potential when performing at their best. Key moments during this stretch included a walk-off win against the Braves, where Nico Hoerner delivered a clutch double, emphasizing his role as a catalyst in the lineup.
New York Yankees
In contrast, the Yankees have been in strong form, winning 7 of their last 10 games. Their recent series sweep against the division rival Boston Red Sox was a testament to their dominance and depth. Notably, Aaron Judge has been on a tear, belting five home runs over the past week, further cementing his role as the team’s offensive anchor. This winning streak has seen the Yankees solidify their position at the top of the AL East standings, giving them a slight cushion over the second-placed Toronto Blue Jays.
Head-to-Head History
This season, the Cubs and Yankees have met only once, with the Yankees emerging victorious in a tight 4-3 contest. Historically, the Yankees have had the upper hand in interleague play, winning 7 of the last 10 meetings against the Cubs. This series history could play a psychological role, giving the Yankees an edge as they take the field.
Pitching Matchups
Chicago Cubs: Marcus Stroman
The Cubs will likely send Marcus Stroman to the mound, who has been their most reliable starter this season. Stroman boasts a 3.48 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and averages 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Despite a few rough outings in early June, he has rebounded with two quality starts, allowing just four earned runs over his last 14 innings. His ability to induce ground balls will be crucial against a Yankees lineup known for its power hitting.
New York Yankees: Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole, the Yankees’ ace, will take the hill for New York. Cole has been lights out with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, alongside a remarkable 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. However, his last outing against the Mets saw him give up four runs over six innings, raising minor concerns about his command. Nevertheless, Cole remains a formidable force, particularly at home where he has consistently dominated opponents.
Key Position-Player Matchups
Chicago Cubs
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Nico Hoerner: The second baseman has been a bright spot for the Cubs, hitting .312 with an OPS of .845. His speed and on-base abilities make him a constant threat, particularly against Cole, whom he has seen well in previous matchups.
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Seiya Suzuki: Suzuki has quietly put together a solid season, batting .290 with 18 home runs and 62 RBIs. His success against fastballs could be pivotal against Cole, who relies heavily on his heater.
New York Yankees
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Aaron Judge: The reigning MVP is showcasing another stellar season, hitting .294 with a league-leading 35 home runs and 85 RBIs. His power versus Stroman’s ground-ball tendencies will be a focal point of this matchup.
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Giancarlo Stanton: Stanton’s resurgence has been critical for the Yankees; he’s posted a .275 average with 27 home runs. His matchup against Stroman could be advantageous due to his ability to handle low fastballs.
Situational Factors
The game will be held at Yankee Stadium, a venue notorious for its short porches and hitter-friendly dimensions. This could amplify the Yankees’ home run capabilities, especially given the Cubs’ occasional struggles with giving up long balls. The weather forecast suggests clear skies with a moderate breeze blowing out to right field, which might further aid fly balls leaving the park.
Injuries could play a role, as the Cubs are currently without star shortstop Dansby Swanson, sidelined with a hamstring strain. His absence leaves a gap in both offensive production and defensive prowess. Meanwhile, the Yankees appear relatively healthy, with only a few bullpen arms on the injured list.
Advanced Metrics
For the Cubs, team wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) sits at 105, slightly above average, indicating a competent offensive unit. However, their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.20 suggests some overperformance compared to their actual ERA, hinting at potential regression.
The Yankees, meanwhile, boast a wRC+ of 112, a testament to their potent lineup. Their FIP of 3.80 aligns closely with their ERA, reflecting strong, sustainable pitching performances.
Prediction and Confidence Level
Considering the current form, venue, and pitching matchups, this game is poised to be a tight contest. The Yankees’ home advantage and their superior recent record suggest they are marginal favorites. I project a final score of 5-3 in favor of the Yankees. This prediction considers Gerrit Cole’s dominance at home and the Yankees’ offensive firepower, particularly in a hitter-friendly park. I am 70% confident in this outcome, given the Yankees’ current momentum and the Cubs’ inconsistencies. However, baseball is unpredictable, and the Cubs could certainly pull an upset if Stroman delivers a standout performance.
In summary, this game between the Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees holds significant weight for both teams. With playoff implications and personal stakes, expect fireworks in what should be an entertaining and closely fought battle.
| Player Name | Prop | Prediction | Line | Trends | Last 3 Games | Wind | Team | Odds | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brandon Young | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 3.75 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Baltimore Orioles | -315 | 07-08 |
 Brayan Bello | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 4.5 | 3.93 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Boston Red Sox | 100 | 07-08 |
 Chris Bassitt | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 5.67 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Toronto Blue Jays | 116 | 07-08 |
 Clay Holmes | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 4.47 | Over Hit 1/3 | Bad |  New York Mets | -275 | 07-08 |
 Clayton Kershaw | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.89 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Los Angeles Dodgers | -135 | 07-08 |
| Clayton Kershaw | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 3.56 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Dodgers | -158 | 07-08 |
 Hunter Brown | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 1.5 | 1.24 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Houston Astros | -105 | 07-08 |
| Hunter Brown | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 6.5 | 7.41 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Houston Astros | -145 | 07-08 |
 Jack Flaherty | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 6.41 | Over Hit 2/3 | Good |  Detroit Tigers | -345 | 07-08 |
 Jacob Misiorowski | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.75 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Milwaukee Brewers | -155 | 07-08 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 5.5 | 5.25 | Under Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Milwaukee Brewers | -158 | 07-08 |
 Jake Irvin | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 4.17 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Washington Nationals | 102 | 07-08 |
 Jeffrey Springs | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.44 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Oakland Athletics | 125 | 07-08 |
| Jeffrey Springs | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 4.5 | 4.39 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Oakland Athletics | -110 | 07-08 |
 Joey Cantillo | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 1.5 | 0.55 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Cleveland Guardians | 125 | 07-08 |
| Joey Cantillo | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 4.5 | 1.86 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Cleveland Guardians | -122 | 07-08 |
 Jose Soriano | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 2.39 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral |  Los Angeles Angels | 110 | 07-08 |
| Jose Soriano | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 5.06 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Angels | -145 | 07-08 |
 Kyle Freeland | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 3.81 | Over Hit 1/3 | Bad |  Colorado Rockies | -139 | 07-08 |
 Logan Gilbert | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 7.4 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Seattle Mariners | -315 | 07-08 |
 Merrill Kelly | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 2.28 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Arizona Diamondbacks | -105 | 07-08 |
| Merrill Kelly | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 5.72 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad | Arizona Diamondbacks | -104 | 07-08 |
 Mitch Keller | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.39 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Pittsburgh Pirates | -105 | 07-08 |
| Mitch Keller | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 4.5 | 4.67 | Under Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Pittsburgh Pirates | -160 | 07-08 |
 Nathan Eovaldi | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.07 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Texas Rangers | -150 | 07-08 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 5.71 | Over Hit 0/3 | Neutral | Texas Rangers | -145 | 07-08 |
 Nick Martinez | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 3.5 | 3.74 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Cincinnati Reds | 124 | 07-08 |
 Nick Pivetta | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 1.5 | 2.06 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad |  San Diego Padres | 120 | 07-08 |
| Nick Pivetta | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 6.29 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad | San Diego Padres | -155 | 07-08 |
 Robbie Ray | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.78 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  San Francisco Giants | -145 | 07-08 |
| Robbie Ray | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 6.5 | 6.5 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | San Francisco Giants | -120 | 07-08 |
 Ryan Pepiot | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 5.61 | Over Hit 2/3 | Good |  Tampa Bay Rays | -245 | 07-08 |
 Seth Lugo | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.75 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Kansas City Royals | -160 | 07-08 |
| Seth Lugo | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 5.19 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Kansas City Royals | -120 | 07-08 |
 Shota Imanaga | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.7 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Chicago Cubs | -115 | 07-08 |
| Shota Imanaga | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 4.5 | 4.1 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Chicago Cubs | 110 | 07-08 |
 Simeon Woods Richardson | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.38 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Minnesota Twins | 115 | 07-08 |
| Simeon Woods Richardson | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 3.5 | 4.23 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Minnesota Twins | 116 | 07-08 |
 Sonny Gray | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 6.29 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  St. Louis Cardinals | -112 | 07-08 |
 Taijuan Walker | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.16 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Philadelphia Phillies | -170 | 07-08 |
| Taijuan Walker | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 2.5 | 2.42 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Philadelphia Phillies | 125 | 07-08 |
 Will Warren | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 5.94 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  New York Yankees | -278 | 07-08 |
