Preview of the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Matchup on July 7, 2025
As the summer heat intensifies, so does the Major League Baseball playoff race. On July 7, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers will face off in what promises to be a crucial game for both teams. With the Dodgers leading the National League West and the Brewers climbing the ranks in the National League Central, the stakes are high as each team vies for postseason positioning.
Context of the Matchup
Currently, the Dodgers boast a strong hold on first place in the NL West, with a 4-game lead over the second-place San Diego Padres. The Dodgers have been a model of consistency and resilience this season, showcasing their strength across all facets of the game. Meanwhile, the Brewers are in second place in the NL Central, trailing the St. Louis Cardinals by 2 games. Milwaukee is in the thick of the Wild Card race, making every game critical as they aim to solidify their playoff hopes.
Recent Performance Analysis
In their last ten games, the Dodgers have gone 7-3, including a crucial series win against their division rivals, the Padres. This stretch was highlighted by dominant pitching performances and timely hitting, key elements that have propelled them to the top of their division. However, a recent loss to the San Francisco Giants disrupted a five-game winning streak, serving as a reminder of the challenges that lie ahead.
Conversely, the Brewers have gone 5-5 in their last ten games. They have shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in a series sweep against the Chicago Cubs, but have struggled with consistency, particularly against tougher opponents like the Cardinals. A critical moment came in a narrow extra-inning victory over the Cincinnati Reds, which seemed to spark some momentum in the clubhouse.
Head-to-Head History
This season, the Dodgers and Brewers have squared off five times, with the Dodgers leading the series 3-2. Historically, the Dodgers have had the upper hand in this matchup, winning 7 of their last 10 meetings. This trend underscores their recent dominance and provides a psychological edge that could play a role in this upcoming game.
Pitching Matchups
For the Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw is the probable starter. The seasoned southpaw has been in vintage form this season, sporting an impressive 2.87 ERA, a WHIP of 1.05, and averaging 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. His last outing against the Rockies saw him pitch seven shutout innings, further cementing his reputation as a big-game pitcher. Despite his age, Kershaw remains remarkably effective, though there have been discussions about managing his workload to prevent potential injuries.
Opposing him will be the Brewers’ standout ace, Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff has been a force on the mound with a 3.26 ERA, a WHIP of 1.08, and a strikeout rate of 10.2 per nine innings. His recent start against the Cardinals showcased his ability to dominate a lineup, as he struck out 11 batters over six innings. Woodruff has a history of stepping up in crucial games, making him the ideal candidate to challenge the Dodgers’ potent lineup.
Key Position-Player Matchups
For the Dodgers, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have been pivotal to their offensive success. Betts is hitting .311 with an OPS of .950, 22 home runs, and 60 RBIs. Freeman, meanwhile, is batting .328 with an OPS of .990, along with 18 home runs and 70 RBIs. Both players excel at facing power pitchers like Woodruff, with Betts’ quick bat and Freeman’s disciplined approach posing significant threats.
On the Brewers’ side, Christian Yelich and Willy Adames stand out. Yelich, having a bounce-back season, is hitting .285 with an OPS of .880, 15 home runs, and 55 RBIs. Adames contributes with a .270 average, an .800 OPS, 20 home runs, and 65 RBIs. Yelich, in particular, has shown a knack for hitting Kershaw, boasting a .300 average against him over the last few seasons.
Situational Factors
The game will take place at Dodger Stadium, known for its pitcher-friendly dimensions, which could benefit both starting pitchers. The weather forecast predicts clear skies with mild temperatures, minimizing any potential weather-related disruptions.
Both teams have relatively healthy rosters, although the Dodgers will miss the services of young phenom Julio Urias, who is nursing a minor shoulder ailment. The Brewers, meanwhile, will monitor the status of infielder Kolten Wong, who is battling a lingering hamstring issue.
Advanced Metrics
From a sabermetric perspective, the Dodgers’ roster boasts a team Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 115, indicating a productive lineup well above league average in generating runs. Their pitching staff complements this with a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.75, suggesting strong underlying performance independent of fielding.
The Brewers have a wRC+ of 105, highlighting a slightly above-average offensive unit, while their FIP stands at 3.90, reflective of a solid pitching foundation that supports their playoff aspirations.
Prediction
Considering the analysis of recent performances, head-to-head history, pitching matchups, and key player dynamics, the Dodgers appear to have a slight edge in this contest. With Kershaw on the mound and the offensive power of Betts and Freeman, the Dodgers’ balanced attack coupled with their home-field advantage suggests a favorable outcome.
Projected Final Score: Dodgers 5, Brewers 3
I’m 65% confident that the Dodgers will emerge victorious, given their current form and proven track record against the Brewers. However, baseball remains unpredictable, and the Brewers have the potential to turn the tables if their stars align.
| Player Name | Prop | Prediction | Line | Trends | Last 3 Games | Wind | Team | Odds | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brandon Pfaadt | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 3.0 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral |  Arizona Diamondbacks | -130 | 07-03 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 4.24 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Arizona Diamondbacks | -335 | 07-03 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.24 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Arizona Diamondbacks | -150 | 07-03 |
 Bryce Elder | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 3.38 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Atlanta Braves | -120 | 07-03 |
| Bryce Elder | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 4.38 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Atlanta Braves | -315 | 07-03 |
| Bryce Elder | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 1.85 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Atlanta Braves | -130 | 07-03 |
 Cade Horton | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 1.5 | 2.67 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Chicago Cubs | -165 | 07-03 |
| Cade Horton | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 3.67 | Over Hit 1/3 | Bad | Chicago Cubs | -360 | 07-03 |
| Cade Horton | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 1.56 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad | Chicago Cubs | -145 | 07-03 |
 Chris Bassitt | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.65 | Under Hit 1/3 | Neutral |  Toronto Blue Jays | -125 | 07-03 |
| Chris Bassitt | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 5.47 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Toronto Blue Jays | -295 | 07-03 |
| Chris Bassitt | pitcher_walks | Under | 2.5 | 1.47 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Toronto Blue Jays | -190 | 07-03 |
 Clarke Schmidt | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.0 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  New York Yankees | -135 | 07-03 |
| Clarke Schmidt | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 5.54 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | New York Yankees | -250 | 07-03 |
| Clarke Schmidt | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 2.15 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | New York Yankees | -150 | 07-03 |
 David Peterson | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 1.5 | 2.19 | Over Hit 3/3 | Bad |  New York Mets | -170 | 07-03 |
| David Peterson | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 5.19 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad | New York Mets | -385 | 07-03 |
| David Peterson | pitcher_walks | Under | 2.5 | 2.12 | Under Hit 0/3 | Bad | New York Mets | -190 | 07-03 |
 Dustin May | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 1.5 | 2.87 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Los Angeles Dodgers | -165 | 07-03 |
| Dustin May | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 5.0 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Dodgers | -315 | 07-03 |
| Dustin May | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 2.33 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Dodgers | -170 | 07-03 |
 Jake Irvin | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 3.06 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Washington Nationals | -150 | 07-03 |
| Jake Irvin | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 4.18 | Over Hit 3/3 | Bad | Washington Nationals | -590 | 07-03 |
| Jake Irvin | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.76 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad | Washington Nationals | -105 | 07-03 |
 Joey Cantillo | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 3.5 | 1.71 | Under Hit 1/3 | Bad |  Cleveland Guardians | 105 | 07-03 |
 Jose Quintana | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.0 | Under Hit 1/3 | Bad |  Milwaukee Brewers | 105 | 07-03 |
| Jose Quintana | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 3.73 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad | Milwaukee Brewers | -420 | 07-03 |
| Jose Quintana | pitcher_walks | Over | 2.5 | 2.45 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad | Milwaukee Brewers | 120 | 07-03 |
 Jose Soriano | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.53 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Los Angeles Angels | -120 | 07-03 |
| Jose Soriano | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 4.94 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Angels | -275 | 07-03 |
| Jose Soriano | pitcher_walks | Under | 2.5 | 2.65 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Angels | -145 | 07-03 |
 Logan Evans | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 1.5 | 2.14 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Seattle Mariners | -175 | 07-03 |
| Logan Evans | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 4.29 | Over Hit 3/3 | Bad | Seattle Mariners | -125 | 07-03 |
| Logan Evans | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 1.71 | Over Hit 1/3 | Bad | Seattle Mariners | 110 | 07-03 |
 Robbie Ray | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.76 | Under Hit 1/3 | Neutral |  San Francisco Giants | -130 | 07-03 |
| Robbie Ray | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 6.47 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | San Francisco Giants | -385 | 07-03 |
| Robbie Ray | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 2.24 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | San Francisco Giants | -165 | 07-03 |
 Seth Lugo | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.8 | Under Hit 3/3 | Bad |  Kansas City Royals | -125 | 07-03 |
| Seth Lugo | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 5.07 | Over Hit 3/3 | Bad | Kansas City Royals | -245 | 07-03 |
| Seth Lugo | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.87 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad | Kansas City Royals | -115 | 07-03 |
