NFL Cheat Sheets

Line:

  • Represents the Sportsbook Betting Margin

Trends:

  • Shows the average performance over the last 15 matches.

Trust%:

  • TRUST% value is determined by our AI model, it rates prediction based on how trustworthy is it.

Last 5 Games, Last 10 Games, Last 15 Games:

  • In Last 5,10 or 15 games how many times this player went Over or the Under Betting line. 

Wind

Wind is labeled Favors Over / Neutral / Favors Under and reflects forecasted wind impact adjusted for the venue (indoor/outdoor) and typical passing/kicking dynamics.

  • Passing/Receiving props (Passing Yards, Pass Attempts, Receiving Yards, Receptions): Headwinds/crosswinds usually suppress deep passing and FG accuracy → Favors Under. Calm or tailwind conditions are friendlier → Favors Over.

  • Rushing Yards: Conditions that discourage passing can shift teams toward the run → often Favors Over.

  • Indoor stadiums: Wind impact is negligible.
    Role in model: small, context “nudge,” not a standalone signal.

Stadium

“Stadium” is the normalized Venue flag (Indoor/Outdoor), capturing baseline environment stability.

  • Indoor: More stable conditions that slightly help timing-based passing, receiving, and kicking.

  • Outdoor: Adds weather variability; effect depends on wind/precip.
    Role in model: minor vs. Recent Form, Trends vs Line, and Opponent Ease.

Weather

Weather is summarized as Good / Neutral / Bad based on temperature, precipitation, and conditions.

  • Good: Slight boost to passing/receiving efficiency and place-kicking → helps Over/Yes for pass/rec props.

  • Bad (rain/snow/heavy cold): Often suppresses passing & kicking (helps Under on pass/rec), but can increase rush volume (helps Over on rushing).
    Role in model: small-to-moderate nudge depending on prop.

Opponent Ease

Opponent Ease is our defensive softness vs the specific prop.

  • How it’s built: For each prop & position we aggregate what that defense has allowed in the last 10 games (fallback last 5, need ≥3), then compare to league percentiles to label Very Soft / Soft / Neutral / Tough / Very Tough.

  • Selection-aware interpretation:

    • Over: Soft/Very Soft is favorable; Tough/Very Tough is unfavorable.

    • Under: Tough/Very Tough is favorable; Soft/Very Soft is unfavorable.

    • Anytime TD (Yes): Soft/Very Soft = Good, Tough/Very Tough = Bad (no “for Yes” wording).
      Role in model: one of the key signals because it’s prop- and position-specific.

Market Exp

Market Expectation approximates the scoring environment from market signals (totals/spreads), bucketed as Very High / High / Medium / Low / Very Low Scoring Game.

  • Over/Yes benefit from High/Very High environments.

  • Under benefits from Low/Very Low environments.
    Role in model: meaningful consensus signal; similar weight class to Trends (used as confirmation/contrast with internal metrics).

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