Preview and Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres – July 11, 2025
As the MLB season progresses towards the All-Star break, the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres are set to clash on July 11, 2025, in a game that could have significant playoff implications. Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race, with the Phillies sitting at second place in the NL East, while the Padres are trailing closely behind the Dodgers in the NL West. This matchup is not just about standings, however, as a budding rivalry has emerged between these two competitive squads over recent seasons.
Recent Performance
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have been on a roll lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games. Their recent success can be attributed to both an explosive offense and solid pitching performances. In their last series against the Braves, the Phillies swept the three-game set, outscoring Atlanta 20-8. Key to their success has been the resurgence of their star slugger Bryce Harper, who has regained his MVP form, batting .345 with 4 home runs and 10 RBIs over the past 10 games.
San Diego Padres
The Padres, less consistent, have posted a 5-5 record over their last 10 games. They recently split a four-game series with the Giants, showcasing both their offensive prowess and bullpen struggles. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been the linchpin of their lineup, hitting .318 with 5 home runs and 12 RBIs in this stretch. However, the Padres’ pitching staff has shown signs of fatigue, particularly in the bullpen where recent games have slipped away late.
Head-to-Head History
This season, the Phillies and Padres have faced off six times, with the Phillies holding a 4-2 advantage. Historically, the Phillies have been dominant, winning 7 of the last 10 meetings. Their success has typically hinged on exploiting the Padres’ pitching vulnerability, particularly in high-leverage situations.
Pitching Matchups
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are expected to start ace Aaron Nola. Nola has been exceptional this season, boasting a 3.12 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, with 120 strikeouts over 107 innings pitched. His recent outing against the Braves was a masterpiece, where he pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing just two hits while striking out 10. Nola’s only concern is his tendency to allow the long ball, having given up 15 home runs this season.
San Diego Padres
The Padres will counter with the veteran Yu Darvish. Darvish has posted a 3.68 ERA with a WHIP of 1.15 and 125 strikeouts over 110 innings. While he has been fairly consistent, his last start against the Giants saw him surrender four runs over six innings. Darvish’s ability to navigate the potent Phillies lineup will be crucial, as they have hitters who feast on fastballs.
Key Position-Player Matchups
Philadelphia Phillies
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Bryce Harper: Batting .312/.415/.586 with 25 HRs and 70 RBIs, Harper is the engine of the Phillies’ offense. His matchup against Darvish will be pivotal, as he has had success against him in the past, hitting .350 with 3 home runs in their meetings.
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Trea Turner: Sporting a .295 average and 18 stolen bases, Turner’s speed is a game-changer, especially against a Padres team vulnerable to the running game.
San Diego Padres
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Fernando Tatis Jr.: With a .298/.390/.588 line, Tatis is the heart of the Padres lineup. His agility and power make him a constant threat, and he has hit .320 against Nola in past encounters.
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Juan Soto: Hitting .290 with a .950 OPS, Soto’s patience and power make him dangerous in any situation. His left-handed bat provides a challenge to Nola’s predominantly right-handed repertoire.
Situational Factors
The game will be held at Petco Park, a pitcher-friendly venue that could benefit both starters. The weather forecast is clear, with temperatures expected around 75°F, providing ideal conditions for a competitive game. The Padres have no significant injuries, while the Phillies are monitoring catcher J.T. Realmuto, who is day-to-day with a minor wrist issue.
Advanced Metrics
Philadelphia Phillies
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wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus): The Phillies have a team wRC+ of 115, indicating that they create 15% more runs than the league average when adjusted for park effects.
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FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) for Nola: His FIP of 3.45 suggests he has pitched slightly worse than his ERA might indicate, but still among the league’s elite.
San Diego Padres
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wRC+: The Padres hold a wRC+ of 110, reflecting their solid offensive output despite recent struggles.
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FIP for Darvish: With a FIP of 3.55, Darvish’s numbers align closely with his ERA, showing a true representation of his performance this season.
Prediction
Given the Phillies’ recent form and their success against San Diego this season, combined with Nola’s current streak of dominance, the Phillies are poised to take this matchup. I predict a final score of 5-3 in favor of the Phillies. While the Padres have the offensive firepower to challenge, the consistency of the Phillies’ rotation and lineup balance gives them the edge.
I’m 65% confident in this prediction, bolstered by the Phillies’ proven ability to perform in high-stakes games and their historical edge over the Padres. As both teams look to solidify their postseason ambitions, this game promises to be a thrilling contest.
| Player Name | Prop | Prediction | Line | Trends | Last 3 Games | Wind | Team | Odds | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brandon Young | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 3.25 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Baltimore Orioles | -155 | 07-08 |
| Brandon Young | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 3.75 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Baltimore Orioles | -305 | 07-08 |
| Brandon Young | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 2.75 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Baltimore Orioles | -145 | 07-08 |
 Brayan Bello | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.07 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Boston Red Sox | -145 | 07-08 |
| Brayan Bello | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 3.93 | Over Hit 1/3 | Bad | Boston Red Sox | -385 | 07-08 |
| Brayan Bello | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 2.36 | Over Hit 1/3 | Bad | Boston Red Sox | -150 | 07-08 |
 Chris Bassitt | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 2.67 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Toronto Blue Jays | 120 | 07-08 |
| Chris Bassitt | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 5.67 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad | Toronto Blue Jays | -360 | 07-08 |
| Chris Bassitt | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.56 | Under Hit 1/3 | Bad | Toronto Blue Jays | 110 | 07-08 |
 Clay Holmes | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.82 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  New York Mets | -135 | 07-08 |
| Clay Holmes | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 4.47 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral | New York Mets | -275 | 07-08 |
| Clay Holmes | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 2.29 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | New York Mets | -180 | 07-08 |
 Clayton Kershaw | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.89 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Los Angeles Dodgers | -155 | 07-08 |
| Clayton Kershaw | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 3.56 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Dodgers | -480 | 07-08 |
| Clayton Kershaw | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.56 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Dodgers | -115 | 07-08 |
 Hunter Brown | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 1.5 | 1.24 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Houston Astros | -110 | 07-08 |
| Hunter Brown | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 7.41 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Houston Astros | -335 | 07-08 |
| Hunter Brown | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.71 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Houston Astros | 135 | 07-08 |
 Jack Flaherty | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 1.5 | 2.82 | Over Hit 3/3 | Good |  Detroit Tigers | -170 | 07-08 |
| Jack Flaherty | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 6.41 | Over Hit 2/3 | Good | Detroit Tigers | -295 | 07-08 |
| Jack Flaherty | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 2.18 | Over Hit 3/3 | Good | Detroit Tigers | -160 | 07-08 |
 Jacob Misiorowski | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.75 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Milwaukee Brewers | -185 | 07-08 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 5.25 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Milwaukee Brewers | -400 | 07-08 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 2.5 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Milwaukee Brewers | -170 | 07-08 |
 Jake Irvin | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 3.06 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Washington Nationals | -150 | 07-08 |
| Jake Irvin | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 4.17 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Washington Nationals | -265 | 07-08 |
 Jeffrey Springs | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.44 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Oakland Athletics | 115 | 07-08 |
| Jeffrey Springs | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 4.5 | 4.39 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Oakland Athletics | -115 | 07-08 |
| Jeffrey Springs | pitcher_walks | Under | 2.5 | 2.06 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Oakland Athletics | -190 | 07-08 |
 Joey Cantillo | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 1.5 | 0.55 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Cleveland Guardians | 125 | 07-08 |
| Joey Cantillo | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 3.5 | 1.86 | Under Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Cleveland Guardians | 188 | 07-08 |
| Joey Cantillo | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 0.77 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Cleveland Guardians | 145 | 07-08 |
 Jose Soriano | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 2.39 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral |  Los Angeles Angels | 100 | 07-08 |
| Jose Soriano | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 5.06 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Angels | -375 | 07-08 |
| Jose Soriano | pitcher_walks | Over | 2.5 | 2.61 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Angels | 125 | 07-08 |
 Kyle Freeland | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 3.5 | 3.19 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Colorado Rockies | -145 | 07-08 |
| Kyle Freeland | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 3.81 | Over Hit 1/3 | Bad | Colorado Rockies | -210 | 07-08 |
| Kyle Freeland | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.25 | Under Hit 0/3 | Bad | Colorado Rockies | -170 | 07-08 |
 Logan Gilbert | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.9 | Under Hit 1/3 | Neutral |  Seattle Mariners | -130 | 07-08 |
| Logan Gilbert | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 7.4 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Seattle Mariners | -315 | 07-08 |
| Logan Gilbert | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.1 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Seattle Mariners | -135 | 07-08 |
 Merrill Kelly | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 2.28 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Arizona Diamondbacks | -105 | 07-08 |
| Merrill Kelly | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 5.72 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad | Arizona Diamondbacks | -230 | 07-08 |
| Merrill Kelly | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 1.61 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad | Arizona Diamondbacks | -105 | 07-08 |
 Mitch Keller | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.39 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Pittsburgh Pirates | -110 | 07-08 |
| Mitch Keller | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 4.67 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Pittsburgh Pirates | -480 | 07-08 |
| Mitch Keller | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 1.44 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Pittsburgh Pirates | 145 | 07-08 |
 Nathan Eovaldi | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 1.5 | 1.07 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Texas Rangers | 130 | 07-08 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 5.71 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Texas Rangers | -360 | 07-08 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 0.93 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Texas Rangers | -160 | 07-08 |
 Nick Martinez | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.47 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Cincinnati Reds | 110 | 07-08 |
| Nick Martinez | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 3.74 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Cincinnati Reds | -455 | 07-08 |
| Nick Martinez | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.11 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Cincinnati Reds | -200 | 07-08 |
 Nick Pivetta | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 1.5 | 2.06 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad |  San Diego Padres | 120 | 07-08 |
| Nick Pivetta | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 6.29 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad | San Diego Padres | -335 | 07-08 |
| Nick Pivetta | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.41 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad | San Diego Padres | -130 | 07-08 |
 Robbie Ray | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.78 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  San Francisco Giants | -145 | 07-08 |
| Robbie Ray | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 6.5 | 6.5 | Under Hit 1/3 | Neutral | San Francisco Giants | -120 | 07-08 |
 Ryan Pepiot | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.11 | Under Hit 2/3 | Good |  Tampa Bay Rays | -150 | 07-08 |
| Ryan Pepiot | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 5.61 | Over Hit 2/3 | Good | Tampa Bay Rays | -245 | 07-08 |
| Ryan Pepiot | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 1.83 | Over Hit 3/3 | Good | Tampa Bay Rays | -150 | 07-08 |
 Seth Lugo | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.75 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Kansas City Royals | -160 | 07-08 |
| Seth Lugo | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 5.19 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Kansas City Royals | -295 | 07-08 |
| Seth Lugo | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 1.88 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Kansas City Royals | -110 | 07-08 |
 Shota Imanaga | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.7 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Chicago Cubs | -120 | 07-08 |
| Shota Imanaga | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 4.1 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Chicago Cubs | -400 | 07-08 |
| Shota Imanaga | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.5 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Chicago Cubs | -190 | 07-08 |
 Simeon Woods Richardson | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.38 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Minnesota Twins | 100 | 07-08 |
| Simeon Woods Richardson | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 4.23 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Minnesota Twins | -420 | 07-08 |
| Simeon Woods Richardson | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 1.85 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Minnesota Twins | -200 | 07-08 |
 Sonny Gray | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 1.5 | 2.29 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral |  St. Louis Cardinals | -130 | 07-08 |
| Sonny Gray | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 6.29 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | St. Louis Cardinals | -250 | 07-08 |
 Taijuan Walker | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.16 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Philadelphia Phillies | -175 | 07-08 |
| Taijuan Walker | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 2.5 | 2.42 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Philadelphia Phillies | 115 | 07-08 |
 Will Warren | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.61 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  New York Yankees | -115 | 07-08 |
| Will Warren | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 5.94 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | New York Yankees | -278 | 07-08 |
| Will Warren | pitcher_walks | Under | 2.5 | 2.17 | Under Hit 1/3 | Neutral | New York Yankees | -165 | 07-08 |
