St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Preview: July 19, 2025

Introduction to the Matchup

The St. Louis Cardinals and Arizona Diamondbacks are set to clash on July 19, 2025, in what promises to be a pivotal game for both teams as they navigate the dog days of the MLB season. The Cardinals enter this matchup occupying the second spot in the NL Central, hot on the heels of the Milwaukee Brewers, making every game crucial as they aim to secure a playoff berth. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are positioned third in the NL West, a division known for its competitiveness, and are striving to close the gap on the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers. This game not only carries the weight of playoff implications but also serves as a litmus test for both teams as they seek to solidify their standings and gain momentum in their respective races.

Recent Performance Analysis

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have been riding a wave of success over their last ten games, posting an impressive 7-3 record. They recently swept a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds and have won two out of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates. This surge in performance has been buoyed by a combination of solid pitching and timely hitting. Key moments include a walk-off grand slam by star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt against the Reds, which set the tone for their recent form.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Conversely, the Diamondbacks have had a rocky road in their last ten games, going 4-6. They suffered a tough series loss against the San Francisco Giants but managed to bounce back with a series win against the San Diego Padres. Despite these challenges, the Diamondbacks have shown resilience, highlighted by an offensive explosion where they scored 15 runs in a decisive victory over the Padres. Their challenge will be maintaining consistency against the Cardinals.

Head-to-Head History

This season, the Cardinals and Diamondbacks have faced each other six times, with the Cardinals holding a 4-2 advantage. Historically, the Cardinals have had the upper hand in this matchup, winning eight of the last twelve meetings between these two teams across the past two seasons. This trend will be a psychological edge for St. Louis, but Arizona will be keen to flip the script in front of their home crowd.

Pitching Matchups

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are expected to start Jack Flaherty, a right-handed pitcher who has been the team’s ace this season. Flaherty holds a 3.28 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and is averaging 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. In his recent outing, Flaherty dazzled against the Pirates, allowing just one run over seven innings while striking out nine. Flaherty’s health remains a concern, as he has been on the injured list earlier in the season, but he has shown no lingering effects in recent appearances.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Opposing Flaherty will be Arizona’s left-handed stalwart, Madison Bumgarner. The seasoned veteran comes into the game with a 3.95 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a respectable 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Bumgarner has been reliable but struggled in his last start against the Giants, allowing five runs over six innings. The Diamondbacks will hope Bumgarner can rebound and harness some of his vintage form against St. Louis.

Key Position-Player Matchups

St. Louis Cardinals Hitters

• Paul Goldschmidt: The slugging first baseman has been in beast mode this season, boasting a .310 average with 25 home runs and 75 RBIs. His OPS of .950 underscores his ability to get on base and deliver in clutch situations. Against Bumgarner, Goldschmidt has historically excelled, with a .345 average and five home runs.

• Nolan Arenado: Arenado provides a formidable one-two punch alongside Goldschmidt. He has a .295 average, 20 home runs, and 68 RBIs. His wRC+ of 140 highlights his contribution to run production, and he matches up favorably against lefties, making him a crucial figure in this game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Hitters

• Ketel Marte: A consistent offensive force for the Diamondbacks, Marte is batting .298 with 18 homers and 60 RBIs. His OPS of .880 is notable, and he will look to exploit any flaws in Flaherty’s arsenal.

• Corbin Carroll: The rookie sensation has taken the league by storm with a .285 average, 22 home runs, and 65 RBIs. His speed and power make him a dual threat, and his WAR of 3.5 reflects his all-around impact on the team’s success.

Situational Factors

The game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, which in recent years has become more of a neutral park in terms of offensive output, largely due to the humidor system in place. However, the familiarity of their home turf can provide the Diamondbacks an edge. Weather forecasts predict clear skies with temperatures around 95°F, typical for an Arizona summer evening, potentially impacting pitcher stamina in later innings.

Injury reports indicate that the Cardinals will be missing shortstop Tommy Edman due to a minor hamstring strain, while the Diamondbacks are without closer Mark Melancon, who is on the injured list with shoulder discomfort.

Advanced Metrics

St. Louis Cardinals:

• wRC+: The Cardinals boast a team wRC+ of 110, indicating they generate runs 10% better than league average. This metric highlights their offensive depth and ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

• FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): The Cardinals’ pitching staff has a FIP of 3.75, suggesting their ERA (3.60) is sustainable and not overly reliant on defensive plays, which bodes well against a strong offensive opponent.

Arizona Diamondbacks:

• wRC+: The Diamondbacks have a team wRC+ of 105, showcasing their above-average offensive capability, though slightly less potent than St. Louis.

• Defensive Runs Saved (DRS): With a DRS of +30, Arizona’s defense has been exceptional, turning potential hits into outs more effectively than most teams, an element that could be crucial in a tight game.

Prediction

Given the recent form of both teams, the Cardinals appear to have the upper hand, especially considering Flaherty’s current dominance on the mound and the formidable presence of Goldschmidt and Arenado against left-handed pitching. The Diamondbacks, while resilient, may find it challenging to overcome these factors.

Projected Final Score: Cardinals 5, Diamondbacks 3

I’m 70% confident that the Cardinals will secure the victory, primarily due to their strong pitching matchup and offensive prowess against left-handed pitching. However, the Diamondbacks’ home advantage and defensive strength could keep the game tighter than expected.