The St. Louis Cardinals visit the Texas Rangers on Sunday, June 1, 2025. It’s a marquee pitching duel between Erick Fedde and Jacob deGrom. Opening odds list St. Louis around a -130 favorite on the moneyline (Texas +110) with a total of 9.0 runs. Can deGrom silence the Cards’ bats, or will Fedde and St. Louis stay hot?.
Pitching Matchup Analysis
St. Louis sends right-hander Erick Fedde (3-3, 3.77 ERA) to the hill. Fedde has logged 57.1 innings with a 1.27 WHIP, striking out 34 against 25 walks (a modest 1.36 K/BB). He’s generally kept the ball in the park (0.78 HR/9), relying on grounders and limiting hard contact. Opposite him, Texas ace Jacob deGrom (4-1, 2.33 ERA) has been dominant. In 10 starts, deGrom owns a sparkling 0.93 WHIP and 62 Ks in 58 innings, yielding only 12 walks. His 5.2 K/BB ratio and 1.2 HR/9 indicate elite command and mostly kept the ball in the yard. DeGrom’s high-90s fastball and wipeout slider could feast on a Cardinals lineup that can swing and miss. Still, Fedde has been a steady mid-rotation presence, so the pitching edge leans Texas but not overwhelmingly.
Key Factors (Park, Weather, Umpire)
Globe Life Field in Arlington has played slightly homer-friendly, with a 105 home run park factor (5% above average) last season. On a warm Texas afternoon, the ball could carry – Sunday’s forecast calls for overcast skies and 86°F temperatures. Humidity and a 11 mph wind might aid fly balls a bit. If storms threaten (44% chance of rain), the retractable roof could close, neutralizing weather. On the umpire front, the officiating crew hasn’t been announced – if a pitcher-friendly ump is behind the plate, it could further suppress runs. Overall, park and weather conditions hint at decent scoring conditions unless the roof is closed.
Team Trends (Last 5, Injuries)
The Cardinals come in hot, winners of 4 of their last 5 games. Their offense has averaged around 5 runs in that span, with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado heating up. Meanwhile, the Rangers are just 2-3 in their last five contests, batting a meager .172 over that stretch. Texas’ lineup has struggled lately, though Adolis García remains a home run threat. On the injury front, the Rangers are missing some pop – offseason addition Joc Pederson is on the IL (hand injury) and key starter Jon Gray is out. The Cardinals are relatively healthy aside from long-term absences. Recent form favors St. Louis, but returning home might spark the Rangers’ bats.
Our Pick & Bet Recommendation
Our Pick: Cardinals 5 – Rangers 3. We’ll ride the hotter team and back St. Louis on the moneyline. Fedde has been solid enough, and the Cards’ offense is clicking, which could scrape a few runs off deGrom by the middle innings. Conversely, a slumping Texas lineup may not fully capitalize on deGrom’s gem if he gets little run support. With deGrom on the mound, we also lean Under 9.0 runs, especially if the roof closes for weather (limiting the warm-air carry). The Rangers are just 2-8 in their last 10, and unless their bats wake up, a close low-scoring game favors St. Louis. Grab the Cardinals at -130 and consider the under in what shapes up as a pitchers’ duel. For a plus payout, St. Louis -1.5 on the run line is a viable sprinkle given their form.
CTA: Want more AI-driven MLB insights? Check out our full [MLB Predictions page].
