UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates – Fight-by-Fight Analysis

 

Main Card: Welterweight Main Event: Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates

Recent Form: Former Cage Warriors champ Ian Machado Garry (15–1) suffered his first career loss in December 2024, dropping a five-round unanimous decision to rising contender Shavkat Rakhmonov. Prior to that, Garry was on a lengthy unbeaten streak including dominant wins over veterans like Neil Magny and even a decision victory over Michael Page in mid-2024. Carlos “The Nightmare” Prates (21–6) is riding an impressive 11-fight win streak. Since joining the UFC in 2024, Prates has gone 2–0 with two violent knockouts: a second-round left hook KO of Li Jingliang in August 2024, followed by a first-round TKO of Neil Magny in November 2024. Garry returns to action after a 4-month layoff, while Prates last fought 5 months ago.

Injuries & Layoffs: Garry did not suffer a knockout in his loss (it was a decision), so he avoided serious post-fight medical issues. He is, however, coming off a high-profile defeat and will look to rebound psychologically. Prates has no known injuries and was actually scheduled to fight two weeks earlier before that bout fell through. Both men enter relatively fresh, but Garry’s five-round battle in December may have tested his durability.

Fight Style and Tendencies: Garry is a rangy striker (6′3″ tall) who uses crisp boxing and kicks. He’s shown both patience in decisions and explosive finishing ability (7 of his 15 wins by KO/TKO). Prates is an aggressive power-puncher – 16 of his 21 wins are by knockout. He’s a fast starter, as evidenced by multiple first-round finishes. Both prefer to stand and trade; Garry fights well from distance with technique, whereas Prates presses forward with heavy hands (notably a deadly left hook). Grappling-wise, Garry has solid defensive jiu-jitsu and 1 submission win, while Prates has 3 submission wins but is more known for striking.

Stat Comparison: Garry will enjoy a slight height advantage (6′3″ vs. 6′1″) but Prates actually holds a reach advantage (78″ vs. 74.5″). Garry’s striking is a bit more volume-based (4.72 significant strikes landed per minute) while Prates has shown one-shot knockout power. Neither is a prolific takedown artist (each averages <1 takedown per fight), so this matchup projects as a stand-up duel. Prates has shown early explosiveness, whereas Garry, despite 7 KO wins, is comfortable going the distance when needed (seven decision wins).

Prediction: Expect a tense striking battle. Garry’s technique and movement versus Prates’ power and pressure make this a classic matchup. Garry’s experience in longer fights (five rounds with Rakhmonov) and tactical approach give him an edge if the bout goes into later rounds. Prates will be most dangerous early, but if he can’t land a fight-ending shot in the first two rounds, Garry’s pace and precision may take over. Ian Machado Garry by decision.

Fight Ending Expectation: There’s definite finish potential given Prates’ 76% KO rate and Garry’s own finishing ability. However, Garry proved versus Rakhmonov that he can survive against elite competition. If Garry fights cautiously and uses his jab and kicks, this could go the full 5 rounds. Prates’ best chance is an early KO; if it doesn’t materialize, the probability shifts toward a decision. Overall, lean ~60% chance of a decision and ~40% chance of a finish (more likely by Prates if it happens).

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Light Heavyweight Co-Main: Anthony Smith vs. Mingyang Zhang

Recent Form: Veteran Anthony “Lionheart” Smith (38–21) enters what he has indicated will be his retirement fight. Smith snapped a two-fight skid by defeating Ryan Spann in late 2023 (avenging a prior loss), but he has been inconsistent. In mid-2023 he dropped a lethargic decision to Johnny Walker and has just one win in his last three fights. Zhang “Mountain Tiger” Mingyang (18–6) is a surging prospect on an 11-fight win streak. The Chinese fighter is 2–0 in the UFC, both spectacular first-round knockouts: he starched Brendson Ribeiro in 1:41 of Round 1 at UFC 298, and followed up with a 2:25 Round 1 TKO of Ozzy Diaz in November 2024. Zhang has huge momentum, whereas Smith has been debating retirement and hasn’t fought since mid-2024.

Injuries & Layoffs: Smith, 34, has absorbed a lot of damage over 50 professional fights. He’s had past leg injuries (a broken ankle vs. Ankalaev in 2022) and took heavy leg kicks vs. Walker in 2023. He’s had about 8 months off to recover since his last bout. Zhang, 26, is relatively fresh, with no major injuries reported and fighting for the third time in five months – an active schedule that keeps him sharp. Notably, Smith openly acknowledged he was “shocked” to be matched with an unranked opponent but has embraced this matchup as his likely final UFC appearance.

Fight Style and Tendencies: Smith is a well-rounded fighter with a Muay Thai striking base and dangerous submission game off his back (15 career submission wins). However, he’s slowed down; in recent fights he’s been outworked when opponents push a high pace. Zhang is an explosive striker, 6′2″ tall with fast hands and knockout power in both fists. He’s a finisher – all 18 of his wins have come by stoppage (12 KO/TKO, 6 submissions), and he hasn’t gone the distance in victory. Zhang storms out of the gate aggressive; Smith historically can be a slow starter. Grappling-wise, Smith has a BJJ black belt and opportunistic chokes, while Zhang’s ground game is less tested in UFC (though he has some subs regionally). Smith’s experience in long fights (former title challenger who’s gone 5 rounds) contrasts with Zhang’s penchant for quick fights.

Stat Comparison: Smith is 6′4″ with a 76″ reach vs. Zhang at 6′2″, 75″ reach – virtually identical reach. Smith has far more UFC cage-time (over 40 UFC rounds) compared to Zhang’s 2 UFC rounds. Zhang’s recent UFC performances show high accuracy and fight-ending power early. Smith lands ~3.0 significant strikes per minute historically, but also absorbs a lot (defense 44%) – a concern against Zhang’s power. Smith has been stopped 13 times (KO/TKO 12, Sub 1) in his career, indicating a tendency to get finished against heavy hitters. Zhang has never been knocked out and is 11 years younger – likely the more durable athlete at this point.

Prediction: This fight is seen as a passing-of-torch. Early on, Zhang’s speed and power will be a serious threat – Smith has been hurt early in fights before. “Lionheart” must weather the initial storm, perhaps using clinch and kicks to slow Zhang. If Smith can drag the fight into Round 2 and 3, his veteran savvy and conditioning could create opportunities, especially if Zhang overextends or fades. However, given Smith’s recent showings and Zhang’s ferocity, the likely scenario is Mingyang Zhang by KO/TKO in Round 1 or 2.

Fight Ending Expectation: High probability of a finish. Both fighters rarely hear the final horn – Smith has only 3 decision wins in 38 victories, and Zhang has never won by decision. Smith’s “kill or be killed” style combined with Zhang’s 100% finishing rate suggests we’ll see a stoppage. We’d put an 80% chance on a finish, likely a knockout.

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Featherweight: Giga Chikadze vs. David Onama

Recent Form: After a year-plus hiatus, Georgia’s kickboxing ace Giga Chikadze (15–4) returned to action in August 2023, defeating Alex Caceres by decision. That win got Chikadze back on track following a brutal unanimous decision loss to Calvin Kattar in January 2022 that snapped his 7-fight UFC win streak. At age 36, Giga has fought just once in over two years, so ring rust and age are factors. David “Silent Assassin” Onama (13–2) is a 29-year-old rising talent training out of Glory MMA in Missouri. He’s on a 3-fight win streak, including a highlight-reel knockout of Gabriel Santos in mid-2023 and a hard-fought decision win over Roberto Romero in November 2024. Onama’s win over Romero was a slugfest that went the distance – showing improved cardio and composure. Overall, Chikadze has more high-level experience, but Onama has been more active recently.

Injuries & Layoffs: Chikadze took significant damage in the Kattar fight (absorbing a beating), which led to a long recovery. He appeared healthy in the Caceres fight, though less aggressive than before – possibly a strategic change post-injury. No notable injuries for Onama lately, but he endured a grueling 15-minute war just 5 months ago at lightweight. Onama is now dropping back to featherweight after that venture to 155. Both seem fit, but Giga’s inactivity (one fight since Jan 2022) vs. Onama’s recent activity could be a factor early on.

Fight Style and Tendencies: Chikadze is an elite kickboxer known for his “Giga-kick” to the liver and sharp head kicks. He’s an orthodox fighter with a long reach (74″) who fights best at range, picking opponents apart with kicks and flying knees. Giga has 9 KO/TKO wins in MMA and is a finisher when he finds openings. Onama is a power puncher with explosive hands – 7 of his wins by KO – and a solid grappling base (he has a couple of submission wins as well). Onama often starts fast and hunts the knockout; he almost always either finishes or gets finished (prior to the Romero bout, he’d never won by decision). One key tendency: Onama sometimes expends a lot of energy early (as in his 2022 loss to Nate Landwehr, where he emptied the tank trying to finish in Round 1). However, his recent performances suggest improved patience. Chikadze typically sets a measured pace, ramping up volume as the fight goes on. Grappling-wise, neither is known for offensive wrestling – Giga prefers striking and has solid takedown defense, whereas Onama might mix in clinch work but generally strikes.

Stat Comparison: Both are virtually the same height (~5′11″/6′0″) and have identical reach (~74″), so neither has a big length advantage. Chikadze lands ~3.5 significant strikes per minute and is very accurate with kicks. Onama lands 4.3 significant strikes per minute but also absorbs over 5 per minute (he’s willing to take one to give one). Giga’s defense (60% strike defense pre-Kattar) is higher level than Onama’s. If it goes to the mat, Onama averages 1–2 takedowns per fight, while Giga attempts very few. But Giga showed on his back against Kattar that he can be held down; Onama might not pursue that path heavily though.

Prediction: A classic veteran vs. prospect matchup. Early rounds will be dangerous for Chikadze – Onama’s boxing and power could pose a threat if he closes distance. However, Giga’s kickboxing IQ should allow him to manage range, hammer Onama’s legs and body with kicks, and accumulate damage. Onama’s durability is notable (he survived a three-round firefight recently), but Giga’s precision is a new test. Look for Chikadze to weather any early flurries, then start to pick Onama apart by Round 2 with body kicks and fast combinations. Unless Onama lands a fight-changing punch in the first half of the fight, Giga Chikadze by decision or late TKO. The safer pick is Chikadze by decision, using veteran savvy to outpoint Onama over three rounds.

Fight Ending Expectation: Both men are finishers by nature – combined, they have 16 finishes in 28 wins. Onama especially rarely goes the distance. That said, Chikadze showed against a durable Caceres that he can fight a disciplined, lower-risk decision when needed. If Onama gets reckless, he could be caught by a counter kick or knee (55% chance of a finish). But if he fights smart, this could go all 3 rounds with Giga winning on points. We’ll call it ~50/50, slightly tipping toward a decision given Chikadze’s recent conservative approach and Onama’s improved endurance.

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Middleweight: Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov

Recent Form: Michel “Demolidor” Pereira (31–12, 2 NC) reinvented himself at middleweight in late 2023 with a string of impressive wins. After moving up from 170, Pereira scored three first-round finishes in a row: TKO over Andre Petroski in Oct 2023, a 61-second technical submission of Michał Oleksiejczuk in Mar 2024, and a 54-second guillotine submission of Ihor Potieria in May 2024. That streak ended in Oct 2024 when he fell to Anthony Hernandez via 5th-round TKO in a high-paced fight. Still, Pereira is 3–1 in his last 4 and has looked dangerous at 185. Abusupiyan “Abus” Magomedov (27–6–1) is seeking to rebound from a setback. After a 19-second knockout win in his UFC debut, Abus got a main event shot against Sean Strickland in July 2023. He started strong but gassed and was TKO’d in Round 2. He hasn’t fought since that loss. Essentially, Pereira has been far more active (4 fights in the last 12 months), whereas Abus is coming off a 21-month layoff since the Strickland fight.

Injuries & Layoffs: Pereira appears healthy – he endured 5 rounds with Hernandez where he took ground-and-pound late, but had six months off to recover and has no known injuries. Abus had no major injury reported, but visa issues prevented him from fighting in 2024, contributing to the long layoff. Cardio was a glaring issue in his last fight; one assumes he’s worked to improve his endurance during the hiatus. Pereira’s weight cut is something to note: he struggled at welterweight in the past, but at middleweight he’s seemed much fresher.

Fight Style and Tendencies: Pereira is an unpredictable striker with capoeira-style explosiveness – flying knees, spinning attacks – but he has tempered that wildness recently. He’s shown a more measured but still dangerous style, mixing in grappling (two submissions in his last three wins). Pereira has knockout power (11 KO wins) and flashy striking, yet also 9 submissions to his name. Notably, Pereira in his recent middleweight fights has blitzed early (all those finishes in Round 1) but also showed he can be controlled by a strong grappler over time. Abusupiyan “Abus” Magomedov is a well-rounded kickboxer/wrestler hybrid. Standing, Abus has a crisp jab and front kicks – he famously dropped Strickland early with a front kick. He has 14 KO wins and 7 submissions, indicating finishing ability everywhere. He tends to finish early or fade, having only been past 15 minutes once.

Stat Comparison: Both are similar in size (Pereira 6′1″, Abus 6′2″; each with ~78″ reach). Striking: Pereira’s output at welterweight was ~3.9 strikes/min with 54% accuracy, carried up a division. Abus has a sharp 1–2 and mixes kicks well; in the Strickland fight, he was precise until he tired. Grappling: Pereira’s defensive wrestling has improved – he stuffed takedowns from Petroski and Oleksiejczuk, and can shoot occasionally. Abus has decent offensive wrestling and might attempt to test Pereira’s ground game after seeing Hernandez wear him down. Both have suspect gas tanks in long fights: Pereira slowed in Round 5 vs Hernandez, Abus slowed by Round 2 vs Strickland.

Prediction: Expect an explosive early fight. Abus will likely come out aggressive, possibly looking for a first-round finish while he’s fresh. Pereira is equally capable of first-round fireworks – this could be a wild brawl in the opening minutes. The big question is cardio: if it goes to Round 2 and beyond, Pereira’s recent activity and conditioning might give him the edge. Abus, by contrast, hasn’t proven his stamina in the UFC. Look for Pereira to survive any early scare, then overwhelm Magomedov with a flurry of strikes once the pace steadies. Michel Pereira by TKO in Round 2.

Fight Ending Expectation: It’s hard to imagine this not ending inside the distance. Between them, they have 25 KO/TKO wins and 16 submission wins. Abus has 15 first-round finishes in his career, and Pereira’s last 4 fights have all ended before the final horn. Both men are finish-or-bust types. We’d peg a finish very likely (~85%). Early rounds favor a KO either way – Abus swinging big or Pereira landing a highlight strike. A decision would require both to become cautious after Round 2, which seems unlikely given their DNA. Expect excitement and a finish by mid-fight.

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Welterweight: Randy Brown vs. Nicolas Dalby

Recent Form: Randy “Rudeboy” Brown (19–6) had a productive 2023–24 run until a recent stumble. He compiled a 3-fight win streak: beating Wellington Turman (June 2023), then knocking out veteran Muslim Salikhov in Feb 2024 (earning a Performance bonus), and outpointing Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in June 2024. Brown’s momentum was halted in Dec 2024 when he dropped a close split decision to Bryan Battle (in a catchweight bout where Battle missed weight). Meanwhile, Nicolas “Danish Dynamite” Dalby (23–5–1, 2 NC) is quietly on one of the best runs of his UFC career. Dalby has not lost a scored bout since 2021. In 2022–23 he racked up wins over Claudio Silva and Warlley Alves, then in Nov 2023 he scored a major upset KO of undefeated Gabriel Bonfim – handing the Brazilian prospect his first loss. Dalby hasn’t fought since that Bonfim win (roughly 5 months off). Overall, Brown is 3–1 in his last 4, Dalby 3–0 (with one No Contest in between due to a technical issue).

Injuries & Layoffs: Brown, 32, is in his athletic prime and has stayed active (this is his third fight in 12 months). No significant injuries aside from some leg damage he took in the Salikhov fight (he ate a few spinning kicks but recovered). He appeared fresh in the Battle fight, which was competitive. Dalby, 38, is older but extremely well-conditioned; he prides himself on never getting tired. He’s had periodic cuts on his face (prone to bleeding) but nothing that kept him out long term. Dalby’s last fight was in hostile territory in Brazil, but he came out unscathed with a KO win. At 5 months, both fighters have had a standard training cycle. One thing to watch: Dalby’s fight mileage – though he’s older, he hasn’t taken too many beatings recently.

Fight Style and Tendencies: Brown is a rangy kickboxer (6′3″ tall, 78″ reach) who likes to use teep kicks, jabs, and knees from distance. He also has a sneaky submission game (five wins by sub, including a triangle over Warlley Alves) and a dangerous high-elbow guillotine. Brown’s weakness historically has been pressure and boxing in the pocket – he was caught by Jack Della Maddalena’s hands in 2023 and submitted after being rocked. Dalby is a pressure fighter with a karate base; he fights out of an orthodox stance with bouncing movement and unpredictable timing. He’s not a huge finisher (7 KO wins in 23 wins) but he overwhelms opponents with pace. Dalby’s key trait is cardio – he pushes a high pace for all three rounds. Grappling-wise, Dalby has solid defensive wrestling and will shoot occasionally, but mostly to mix things up. Both men are durable: Brown’s been finished by strikes only twice in UFC, and Dalby’s only TKO loss in UFC was via doctor’s cut stoppage in 2016.

Stat Comparison: Brown will be the taller, longer fighter by a significant margin (6′3″ vs. 5′11″; reach 78″ vs. ~74.5″). He’ll try to exploit that with kicks and long punches. Striking output: Brown lands ~4.2 sig strikes/min, Dalby around 3.4 per min. Dalby’s accuracy isn’t high, but he throws a lot and keeps coming. Striking defense: Dalby tends to absorb around 3.0/min; Brown about 3.5/min. Dalby’s pressure could force Brown into a brawl if Brown doesn’t stick and move. Power: Brown has 7 KO/TKO wins (37% of his wins), whereas Dalby has only 2 KO/TKOs in UFC. Grappling: Brown averages ~0.5 takedowns per fight; Dalby about the same. Neither relies heavily on wrestling offensively. Cardio: clear edge to Dalby – he’s gone to decision in 5 of his last 6 fights and often looks fresher in Round 3.

Prediction: This is a very evenly matched fight on paper. Brown’s physical advantages and recent level of competition give him a slight edge in many eyes. Key to Brown’s success will be using his jab and front kicks to keep Dalby at range. If he lets Dalby close the distance and turn this into a high-tempo dirty boxing match, Dalby can start edging rounds. Dalby will likely use a lot of movement and feinting to navigate Brown’s reach – expect him to dart in with 2-3 punch combinations and low kicks. Brown has a sharp counter right hand and nasty step-in knee that could catch Dalby if he rushes in recklessly. Over three rounds, it’s likely to be back-and-forth. The feeling here is that Brown’s length and the diversity of his offense will impress the judges in at least two rounds. Dalby’s toughness ensures he’ll be coming forward to the final bell, possibly stealing a round with sheer output. Randy Brown by decision (29-28).

Fight Ending Expectation: Likely a decision. Neither man is a reckless finisher at this stage. Dalby’s past five fights all went to decision, and Brown, while he has finishes, usually only finishes lower-tier foes or if he hurts someone late. So this projects as a high-paced, 15-minute battle. We’d say ~70% chance of a decision. If there is a finish, it could be Brown locking up a guillotine if Dalby shoots lazily, or Dalby catching Brown with something if Brown’s gas tank empties. But decision is the smart bet here.

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Middleweight: Ikram Aliskerov vs. André Muniz

Recent Form: Dagestan’s Ikram Aliskerov (15–2) is one of the most touted prospects at 185. Since a lone 2019 loss (to Khamzat Chimaev), Aliskerov has been on a tear. He went 2–0 in the UFC in 2023: a brutal KO of Phil Hawes in his debut and a highlight-reel one-punch knockout of Warlley Alves in October 2023. Those wins pushed his streak to 6. However, he hasn’t fought in over a year due to multiple matchup delays with Muniz. André “Sergipano” Muniz (24–6) was at one point a surging contender after submitting Jacaré Souza in 2021. Recently, though, Muniz has hit adversity: he’s lost his last two fights. He was submitted by Brendan Allen in February 2023, then suffered a TKO loss to Paul Craig in July 2023. Muniz hasn’t fought since that Craig loss 9 months ago and is hungry to halt the skid. In summary, Aliskerov is on a win streak but coming off a layoff; Muniz is on a two-fight losing streak.

Injuries & Layoffs: Aliskerov’s absence has been due to fight cancellations rather than injury – Muniz withdrew from scheduled bouts in mid-2024 (foot fracture) and early 2025 (visa issues). Ikram has stayed training and should be 100% physically. Muniz’s confidence might be dented after two finish losses; additionally, he had to rehab a foot fracture in 2024. By fight night, Muniz will have been out 9+ months, which may have allowed him to recover fully and sharpen his game. No major new injuries known for Muniz, but two straight stoppage losses can have lingering effects (especially the KO against Craig). Both should be in decent health now; question is more about mindset and timing.

Fight Style and Tendencies: Aliskerov is a Combat Sambo world champion with a well-rounded skill set. He has very powerful wrestling and vicious ground-and-pound, but he’s also developed one-punch knockout power in his hands. Ikram’s stand-up is technically improving – he times overhand rights and intercepting hooks well when opponents engage. On the ground, he’s heavy on top and constantly passes guard looking for dominant positions. Muniz is a lanky Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt known for his armbar—he famously broke Jacaré’s arm with one. On the mat, Muniz is extremely dangerous off his back or from top: 15 of his 24 wins are submissions. However, Muniz’s striking is rudimentary; he tends to throw basic one-twos and body kicks mainly to set up takedown entries or clinches. Lately, Muniz’s wrestling has been a weak point – he struggled to take Allen down and got out-grappled by Paul Craig. Muniz is most dangerous in Round 1 when fresh (he’s scored many first-round subs). If dragged deeper, his stamina and striking defense fade.

Stat Comparison: Aliskerov and Muniz are similar in height (around 6′0″ each). Muniz will have a slight reach advantage (Muniz ~78″ vs. Ikram ~75″). Striking: Small sample for Ikram in UFC, but he has two knockouts in two UFC bouts, showing his power. Muniz lands ~2.1 sig strikes/min but that’s often because he’s busy grappling, not striking. Striking defense: Muniz only ~40% – he’s very hittable on the feet. Ikram’s defensive stats are better (he’s been hard to hit clean so far). Grappling: Muniz averages over 2 takedowns per 15 minutes, but those came against lower-tier opponents; his success dropped off against top grapplers. Aliskerov hasn’t needed to shoot much yet because opponents stood with him. But on paper, Ikram is the superior wrestler. On the mat, Muniz has the submission edge off his back (he’ll attack armbars and triangles), whereas Aliskerov’s top game is about pressure and strikes.

Prediction: If Muniz can somehow get top position early, he could threaten Aliskerov – we haven’t seen Ikram on his back in UFC yet. However, getting Ikram down (or pulling guard successfully) will be a tall order. More likely, Aliskerov dictates where this fight goes. On the feet, Ikram should have a huge advantage in power and technique; Muniz’s chin and striking defense are questionable now. Aliskerov could very well land a fight-ending punch or combo if Muniz cannot get it grounded quickly. Muniz’s path to victory is to create a scramble and snag a limb, but Aliskerov’s sambo base means he’s used to leglock and armbar attempts and usually keeps heavy pressure. The trend here points to Aliskerov exploiting Muniz’s recent struggles: Ikram Aliskerov by TKO, possibly in Round 2.

Fight Ending Expectation: High probability of a finish. Muniz has only seen one final bell in his UFC tenure. If Muniz wins, it’s probably a first-round submission. If not, he tends to get finished. Aliskerov is a finisher by nature as well (12 finishes in 15 wins). Given Aliskerov’s heavy hands and Muniz’s world-class grappling, a decisive finish one way or the other is likely. We’d estimate ~75% chance this ends before the horn. A decision would likely mean Aliskerov stayed disciplined from top position while avoiding subs for 15 minutes, which is possible but with these two aggressive fighters, a finish is more expected.

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Preliminary Card

Flyweight: Matt Schnell vs. Jimmy Flick

Recent Form: It’s a meeting of all-action flyweights looking to get back in the win column. Matt “Danger” Schnell (16–9, 1 NC) has had a rough stretch, currently on a three-fight losing streak (all finishes against him). His last win was the epic 2022 comeback over Su Mudaerji via triangle choke. Since then, he was knocked out by Matheus Nicolau and had another scheduled bout scrapped. Schnell hasn’t fought in 16 months, so he’s effectively coming off a long recovery and training period. Jimmy “The Brick” Flick (17–8) also finds himself in a must-win spot. Flick initially retired in 2021, then returned in 2023 and suffered back-to-back stoppage losses. He again briefly announced retirement, only to decide to give it another go here. In short, Schnell’s last win was mid-2022 and he’s been inactive since late 2022; Flick’s last win was Dec 2020, and he’s 0–2 since un-retiring.

Injuries & Layoffs: Schnell, 33, took significant damage in his recent fights – Nicolau knocked him out cold, and before that Brandon Royval choked him out after dazing him. The extended layoff likely helped him recover fully from those concussive blows. Flick, 32, hasn’t reported specific injuries, but two straight first-round KO/TKO losses raise concerns about his chin and reflexes. Both have had time off: Flick 10 months since his last fight, Schnell 16 months. The layoff could benefit Schnell’s chin, but also raises rust issues. On the positive side, both are likely healthy physically coming in, with the main question being how their chin and confidence hold up after recent knockouts.

Fight Style and Tendencies: Schnell and Flick are known for their submission skills in the flyweight division. Schnell is a well-rounded fighter with fast hands and an opportunistic guard. He’s comfortable brawling – sometimes to his detriment – as seen in the Mudaerji fight where he absorbed huge shots only to rally and submit his foe. He has 8 submission wins in his career. Flick is almost a pure submission specialist: 14 of his 17 wins by sub, including a flying triangle in his UFC debut. Flick’s striking is rudimentary; he pretty much jumps guard or shoots low single-legs immediately, even if it means eating punches on the way in. Both fighters have a “kill or be killed” mindset. Defense is not a strength for either: Schnell gets drawn into firefights (and has been KO’d 5 times), while Flick’s striking defense is porous. If the fight hits the mat, it will be a scramble-fest – Schnell has a slick guard and sweeps, but Flick is ultra-creative. Cardio-wise, Schnell has gone three rounds before at a decent pace; Flick tends to either finish early or fade quickly if unsuccessful.

Stat Comparison: Schnell is the better striker on paper – 4.3 sig strikes landed per min – whereas Flick lands only ~1.8. Grappling stats: Flick averages an absurd ~4.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes, indicating his one-track gameplan. Schnell’s takedown defense is 50% – not great, but Flick’s takedown entries are not strong wrestling shots. Schnell actually might have the wrestling edge; he’s stuffed takedowns from good grapplers before. In terms of reach/size: Schnell is 5′8″ with 70″ reach, Flick 5′7″ with 68″ reach – a slight edge to Schnell.

Prediction: This could be a wild one for however long it lasts. Flick’s path is clear: get it to the ground immediately and hunt a submission. If he can’t, he’s likely to get tagged. Schnell has far sharper boxing – he dropped foes like Pantoja and Mudaerji in exchanges – so if Flick’s guard-pulling doesn’t work and he’s forced to stand even for a minute or two, Schnell can capitalize. A likely scenario is Schnell stuffs the first takedown or two, lands some heavy punches or elbows in the clinch that wobble Flick, and then perhaps even engages Flick on the ground but on his terms (top position). Given Flick’s demonstrated vulnerability to strikes, Matt Schnell by second-round TKO is a strong possibility. It could come via ground-and-pound if Flick flops to guard and Schnell decides to pound him instead of diving into the guard. Alternatively, if Flick succeeds in creating a scramble, Schnell is skilled enough to reverse or threaten his own subs. He submitted black belts before, and Flick has been caught in submissions earlier in his career.

Fight Ending Expectation: We expect a finish – likely quickly. Both men are historically finishers and have been finished often. In 25 combined UFC fights, only a handful went to decision. Neither will want a protracted striking match, and on the ground their scramble-heavy style often yields a tap or a nap. Given their recent chin issues, the first clean shot could end it. A submission is also very possible if Flick gets his way. Probability of a finish is extremely high, perhaps 90% finish vs 10% decision.

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Featherweight: Chris Gutiérrez vs. John Castañeda

Recent Form: Chris Gutiérrez (21–6–2) was surging in the bantamweight division until 2023, when he hit a couple of setbacks. He had been unbeaten in 7 straight fights (including a spinning backfist KO of Edgar in 2022) before dropping a decision to Pedro Munhoz in April 2023. He then fought Montel Jackson in Dec 2023 and lost a competitive bout by decision. Now Gutiérrez is looking to avoid a three-fight skid. John “Sexi Mexi” Castañeda (21–7) has been trading wins and losses in the UFC. After a highlight submission of Miles Johns in 2021, he went 1–1 in 2022: a loss to Daniel Santos and a decision win over Muin Gafurov in June 2023. Castañeda was scheduled to fight Gutiérrez in March but fell ill the day of the fight, so this matchup was delayed to now. In short, Gutiérrez is 0–2 in his last two, Castañeda 1–1 in his last two – both eager to regain momentum.

Injuries & Layoffs: Gutiérrez, 32, has no known injuries; his losses were by decision, so he didn’t take severe damage. He’s had about 5 months since the Jackson fight to regroup. Castañeda, 31, hasn’t fought in 10 months. The illness in March was an undisclosed non-weight-cut issue, and he recovered quickly. Both should be healthy now. One note: this fight might be at featherweight (145 lbs) instead of bantamweight, likely due to the short-notice rescheduling – that means neither had to cut the extra 10 lbs, which could benefit Castañeda.

Fight Style and Tendencies: Gutiérrez is a taekwondo-based striker, renowned for nasty leg kicks. He targets the lead calf relentlessly (he has two TKO wins via leg kicks). He’s an orthodox fighter with great lateral movement and counter-striking. Gutiérrez isn’t a brawler – he prefers a technical kickboxing match at range. Castañeda is a well-rounded pressure fighter who can do a bit of everything. He often starts fast – he nearly overwhelmed Santos in round 1 with volume and even knocked him down – but he can also dial back and fight smart. Castañeda has power (8 KO wins) and also a slick submission game (6 subs). In terms of tendencies: If Castañeda fights to his usual pattern, he’ll try to push Gutiérrez backward with combinations and cage cutting. Gutiérrez will circle and hammer the legs. Grappling could come into play – Castañeda might attempt takedowns if he struggles to track Gutiérrez down, whereas Gutiérrez generally tries to avoid grappling exchanges.

Stat Comparison: Gutiérrez and Castañeda are similar in height/reach (~5′7″, 69″ reach each). Striking: Gutiérrez lands ~4.7 sig strikes/min with 58% defense. Castañeda lands ~4.3 per min but absorbs 4.5/min. Gutiérrez’s accuracy is higher, especially with kicks. Grappling: Castañeda has the edge – he averages about 1 takedown per fight and has shown offensive grappling when advantageous. Gutiérrez’s takedown defense is around 73%. Cardio: both have shown good gas tanks in decisions, though Castañeda faded hard in the Santos fight after going guns blazing in Round 1.

Prediction: This fight likely hinges on who can dictate the range and tempo. If it stays mostly kickboxing at distance, that favors Gutiérrez – his leg kicks and counters can pile up points and slow Castañeda’s forward march. If Castañeda can turn it into more of a phone-booth fight – trading in the pocket, mixing in clinches – he can out-hustle Gutiérrez. Considering Castañeda’s tendency to start fast, expect him to try to swarm early, but Gutiérrez’s footwork and leg kicks will serve as defensive offense. Unless Castañeda can land a fight-changing punch, Chris Gutiérrez by decision.

Fight Ending Expectation: This feels like a fight headed to the judges. Neither man is easy to finish. Gutiérrez hasn’t been finished since 2018, and Castañeda, aside from the slugfest with Santos, is relatively durable. Gutiérrez is more of an attrition striker than a one-shot finisher. Castañeda’s finishing usually comes when opponents gas or make mistakes. So a competitive decision is likely: ~65% decision, 35% finish.

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Bantamweight: Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Alatengheili

Recent Form: Da’Mon “The Monster” Blackshear (16–7–1, 1 NC) fought four times in 2023, showing both skill and activity. He went 2–1 (1 NC) in that span. Notably, in August 2023 he pulled off just the third twister submission in UFC history, finishing Jose Johnson in one round. He then made a quick turnaround a week later but dropped a competitive decision to Mario Bautista. His last outing in Nov 2023 was a No Contest. Blackshear thus hasn’t officially won since the twister, but he’s been impressive overall. Alatengheili (17–9–2) is a Chinese bantamweight coming off a weird majority draw in April 2023. Prior to that, he scored a first-round body-punch KO of Chad Anheliger in 2022. Alateng is 2–1–1 in his last 4 fights – consistent, but inactivity is a concern.

Injuries & Layoffs: Blackshear, 28, is in his prime and has no injury layoffs – he fought in August and November, and now 5 months later he’s back. Activity keeps him sharp. Alateng, 31, has been inactive for a year since the draw, but that layoff likely let him improve training. No known injuries for Alateng; the draw was partly due to a point deduction, not a physical issue. Both fighters should be fresh. One aspect to note: Blackshear making a quick one-week turnaround in August showed his durability; he had scored a twister so took no damage, then went three hard rounds a week later with no issue. Cardio and readiness definitely favor Blackshear.

Fight Style and Tendencies: Blackshear is a dynamic grappler with a funky, creative submission game. He scrambles very well – as seen by the twister – and will attack from unorthodox positions. He’s a BJJ black belt with strong wrestling. On the feet, Blackshear throws long punches and kicks, using his reach. He’s not a knockout artist but uses striking to set up takedowns or to maintain range. Alatengheili is a stocky wrestle-boxer. He likes to explode with overhand rights and left hooks – he has real power. He also has a Mongolian wrestling base and good takedown defense. Typically, Alateng either looks for a big punch or will grind opponents against the fence. He’s shown a willingness to eat shots to land his own. One key dynamic: Blackshear will have a 4″ height advantage and likely reach edge, and he fights longer. If Blackshear gets in top position on the mat, Alateng could be in deep trouble – he was submitted once back in 2018, though not in UFC.

Stat Comparison: Size: Blackshear is the taller, rangier fighter. Striking: Alateng lands 2.8 sig strikes/min, Blackshear 2.7. Both tend to grapple, which lowers strike count. Both have low outputs. Alateng’s striking accuracy (41%) vs Blackshear’s (46%) slightly favors Blackshear’s more measured approach. Grappling: Blackshear averages ~2.4 takedowns per 15 with 46% accuracy – he will shoot often. Alateng’s defensive wrestling is 85%; he’s hard to take down and usually pops back up quickly when he is taken down. Blackshear’s submission rate is high. If it hits the mat, Blackshear will be active looking for back takes or funky subs, whereas Alateng will likely try to stall and stand back up.

Prediction: This matchup favors Blackshear’s style on paper. He has the length to touch Alateng at range and the grappling to trouble him on the ground. Alateng will be dangerous early with his boxing – Blackshear has been hittable at times and even got dropped briefly by Bautista. Alateng’s best chance is to land a big overhand on Blackshear coming in or to chop Blackshear’s legs to diminish his mobility. However, if Blackshear fights smart, he can use kicks and feints to draw out Alateng’s swings, duck under and hit takedowns. Once Blackshear gets on top or takes the back, Alateng will be defending submissions. Da’Mon Blackshear by submission, Round 2.

Fight Ending Expectation: Moderately high chance of a finish. Blackshear can absolutely snag a submission if Alateng makes a mistake grappling. Alateng, with his knockout power, could also end it with one punch. That said, Alateng has also gone to decision in 4 of his 6 UFC bouts. Blackshear has only been finished once in 24 fights. The most likely finish is Blackshear via submission. We’d estimate ~60% chance of a finish (leaning sub) and ~40% chance of a decision.

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Bantamweight: Cameron Saaiman vs. Malcolm Wellmaker

Recent Form: 22-year-old Cameron Saaiman (9–2) is a promising prospect from South Africa, but he’s hit his first turbulence. After starting his pro career 8–0, he went 1–2 in his last three. His most recent win was a TKO over Terrence Mitchell in mid-2023, showcasing his finishing instincts. Malcolm “The Machine” Wellmaker (8–0) is an undefeated newcomer making his UFC debut. At 30, Wellmaker earned his contract on Contender Series in August 2024 with a vicious first-round knockout. This is his first official UFC fight. So in terms of UFC experience, Saaiman has the edge (4 UFC fights), but Wellmaker has the momentum of an unbeaten streak and a big KO on a big stage.

Injuries & Layoffs: Saaiman took a fair amount of damage against Christian Rodriguez but nothing overwhelming. He’s had a few months since his last fight to improve. Only potential issue: being so young, he’s still rapidly developing between fights. Wellmaker hasn’t fought since the Contender Series bout 8 months ago, but that fight was short and he took no damage. Both appear injury-free. Training-wise, Saaiman is part of Team Dragão in South Africa and also trains with UFC vet Dricus Du Plessis. Wellmaker trains out of Georgia, USA. Expect both to be 100% physically.

Fight Style and Tendencies: Saaiman is a dynamic striker with a kickboxing background. He fights out of both stances, throws nasty body kicks and punching combinations, and isn’t afraid to brawl. He’s aggressive – sometimes too much so, which led to point deductions for fouls in prior fights. Wellmaker is primarily a power puncher/boxer. On Contender Series, he displayed patient but explosive striking: he stalked his opponent and unloaded a huge overhand that shut the lights out. Six of his eight wins are by knockout. There isn’t a ton of footage on Wellmaker’s grappling, but he has one submission win, suggesting he’s competent if it goes there. Saaiman tends to push a very high pace. Wellmaker has mostly been a first-round fighter so far – a question mark if the fight goes long.

Stat Comparison: Being a debutant, we have limited UFC stats for Wellmaker. Physically, both are the same height (5′10″), and reach should be similar (Saaiman 67″, Wellmaker ~68″). Speed and output: Saaiman lands ~5.6 sig strikes/min – very high output – but also absorbs 4.3/min, meaning he’s willing to trade. Wellmaker in his Contender Series fight threw fewer strikes until the KO opportunity arose – he’s more a one-shot kill type. Power: Edge to Wellmaker – his KO ratio (75% of wins by KO) and that scary Contender Series finish indicate he hits very hard for 135. Saaiman has respectable power (6 of 9 wins by finish), but he tends to accumulate damage rather than one-punch knockouts. Grappling: Saaiman might choose to grapple here to test Wellmaker’s ground game. He’s averaged ~1 takedown per fight in UFC and showed decent ground-and-pound. Wellmaker’s defensive grappling is unproven in high-level competition. If he has a weakness, a savvy gameplan might be to wrestle him. Cardio: Saaiman has gone to decision twice, showing he can fight hard for 15 (though he did slow a bit late). Wellmaker has only seen Round 3 once; if it goes beyond early, how he adapts is a question.

Prediction: This is an intriguing matchup of youthful experience vs. older newcomer. The early minutes will be dangerous for Saaiman – Wellmaker has clear knockout power, and Saaiman’s defense isn’t impenetrable. However, Saaiman’s advantage is his versatility. He can strike or grapple, whereas Wellmaker likely wants a striking match. If Saaiman senses the striking exchanges are too risky, he can mix in clinches or takedowns to wear out Wellmaker. On the feet, Saaiman’s kicks and variety might actually give Wellmaker problems. Expect Saaiman to be a bit more measured than in past fights. If he can drag Wellmaker out of the first round, the fight should tilt in Saaiman’s favor. Cameron Saaiman by decision.

Fight Ending Expectation: For a bantamweight bout, this one has a higher chance of a finish than usual due to Wellmaker’s power and Saaiman’s aggressiveness. That said, if Saaiman executes a cautious game plan, he could steer it to a decision. We’d call it 50/50. Either Wellmaker lands a bomb in the first half or Saaiman’s durability and conditioning lead to him outworking Malcolm to a decision. Given Saaiman’s own finishing rate and Wellmaker’s unknown gas tank, a late TKO by Saaiman isn’t out of the question either. Still, leaning that it goes the distance with Saaiman doing enough each round.

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Women’s Strawweight: Jaqueline Amorim vs. Polyana Viana

Recent Form: Jaqueline Amorim (9–1) is a highly touted strawweight grappler. She debuted in April 2023 and lost a decision to veteran Sam Hughes – a fight where Amorim dominated early but gassed out in the second half. She bounced back in October 2023 with a quick 33-second submission of Montserrat Ruiz, reminding everyone of her elite BJJ credentials. Polyana “Dama de Ferro” Viana (13–7) is a veteran known for her first-round finishes. Her recent track record: she scored a 47-second KO over Jinh Yu Frey in Aug 2022. In 2023, she faced Iasmin Lucindo in Nov and lost a unanimous decision after getting outworked on the feet. Viana is 2–2 in her last 4, alternating wins and losses. Notably, all 13 of Viana’s wins are finishes (6 KO, 7 sub), and she’s never won a fight by decision.

Injuries & Layoffs: Amorim, 28, has kept a normal schedule – about 6 months since her last fight, plenty of time to improve her conditioning. No injuries reported. Viana, 30, fought 5 months ago; she took some damage in the Lucindo fight but nothing too severe. Both should be in good health. One factor: this fight was originally set for a few weeks earlier but got moved, so each had a full camp plus a little extra time. They also briefly trained together years ago, adding an interesting mental wrinkle.

Fight Style and Tendencies: Amorim is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt world champion. Her style is straightforward: aggressive takedowns early, then hunt submissions relentlessly. On the regional scene, she finished most opponents in the first round on the mat. The downside: Amorim’s striking is rudimentary, and her gas tank after round 1 is questionable. Viana is an explosive striker-grappler. On the feet, Viana has knockout power for this weight – she throws quick, looping punches and hard kicks. On the ground, she’s also a BJJ brown belt with opportunistic guard. However, Viana’s weakness is her defensive grappling – she can be taken down and controlled. Viana is extremely dangerous in Round 1 – she often goes for broke early. If the fight goes longer, her effectiveness drops significantly. Both women typically finish or get finished – this is unlikely to be a slow-paced striking match.

Stat Comparison: Amorim’s sample is small. She did land 5 takedowns against Hughes, showing her wrestling edge. Viana’s takedown defense is ~50%; if Amorim commits to wrestling, she likely can put Viana on her back. Striking: Viana lands ~3.5 sig strikes/min with 44% accuracy. Amorim in her debut landed 38 significant strikes in Round 1, then only 6 in Round 3 – illustrating her drop-off. If it stays standing, Viana has a clear advantage in technique and power. Grappling: Amorim attempts submissions at a high clip. Viana’s guard can be a double-edged sword: she might catch Amorim, but staying on her back too long will lose rounds or get her in trouble. Viana has been submitted twice in the UFC.

Prediction: This fight likely hinges on whether Amorim can get the finish early or if Viana can survive and make Amorim pay on the feet. Expect Amorim to immediately shoot or clinch in the first minute – she knows Viana is most dangerous standing. If Amorim gets Viana down quickly, she has a great chance to secure a submission. Conversely, if Viana can fend off the initial grappling storm and force Amorim into a kickboxing exchange in Round 2, the momentum swings to Viana – Amorim’s striking is not at Viana’s level. Given Amorim’s pedigree and Viana’s historical struggles against strong grapplers, the scales tip toward Amorim. Jaqueline Amorim by submission in Round 1.

Fight Ending Expectation: It’s finish or bust for both. Neither has ever won by decision, and we don’t expect this to be the first. Amorim will either get the sub or potentially gas out trying. Viana either gets a KO/sub herself or ends up in a bad spot. Given both women’s 100% finish rate in victories, we’d peg an 85–90% chance of a finish.

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Featherweight: Tim “Timmy” Cuamba vs. Roberto “El Charro Negro” Romero

Recent Form: Timmy Cuamba (8–3) is set to make his UFC debut. He’s a regional featherweight known for his striking; he earned this shot with a solid run including a string of knockout wins in 2022–23. Cuamba hasn’t fought the level of competition that many others on this card have. Roberto Romero (8–4–1) just fought in the UFC five months ago, dropping a unanimous decision to David Onama in a wild fight. Despite the loss, Romero gained fans for his toughness and willingness to trade – that bout was even rated a Top-100 fight of 2024. Prior to that, Romero was on a streak in Mexico’s regional scene. So, Cuamba is the UFC newcomer, while Romero has tasted UFC action.

Injuries & Layoffs: Cuamba hasn’t fought in about 10 months, so he’ll be coming in off a bit of a layoff. At 30, that time likely allowed for improvements in training. No known injuries. Romero, 24, fought in November 2024 where he took a lot of damage in a slugfest. He’s had 5 months to recover and sharpen up – given his age, he should bounce back well. Both seem to be in good shape.

Fight Style and Tendencies: Cuamba is a striker first and foremost. He’s comfortable in boxing range and has power in his hands – many of his wins are by KO/TKO. He throws tight combinations and isn’t afraid to brawl, though he’s shown the ability to counter-punch effectively on the regional circuit. Romero is an aggressive fighter who likes to pressure. In his UFC debut, Romero marched forward and traded heavy punches for three rounds. He has a boxing background and solid chin. Romero also has some grappling – he attempted a few takedowns and clinches to slow the pace when needed. Expect these two to meet in the center and trade.

Stat Comparison: Both are featherweights of similar height (around 5′8″–5′9″). Reach likely about equal (~70″). Striking: Romero in his last fight landed a significant number of strikes, showing he can keep a high pace. Cuamba’s strike output is less known; regionally he has ended many fights before needing volume. Power: slight edge to Cuamba in one-punch power; Romero has some TKOs but often from accumulation. Grappling: neither is a heavy grappler, but Romero might have a slight edge if he chooses. Cardio: Romero went 3 hard rounds and was still throwing at the end, indicating good cardio. Cuamba’s cardio in later rounds is a question.

Prediction: The matchup looks like a striking battle and could even steal the show on the prelims. Romero’s style will be to push Cuamba and see if the newcomer wilts under UFC-level pressure. Cuamba will likely oblige in trading and may have the sharper technique. If Cuamba can stay composed, he could pick Romero apart with cleaner shots and possibly even hurt him. Romero, however, has shown he won’t back down – he’ll make this a scrap. In a close firefight, sometimes the more technical striker prevails, and that leans toward Cuamba. But Romero’s UFC experience and durability make it a tough call. Roberto Romero by decision (slight upset).

Fight Ending Expectation: While a finish is possible (especially given Cuamba’s KO power and Romero’s willingness to eat shots), the durable nature both have shown suggests a decision is slightly more likely. Romero went the distance in a barn-burner, implying he can handle Cuamba’s punches. Cuamba has been stopped before, but not recently. So perhaps a 60% chance of a decision, 40% chance of a finish. If a finish occurs, it’s most likely Cuamba by KO/TKO, or Romero by TKO if he overwhelms Cuamba late.

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Women’s Bantamweight: Chelsea Chandler vs. Joselyne Edwards

Recent Form: Chelsea Chandler (6–3) is coming off her first UFC loss. She won her debut in 2022 by first-round TKO over Julija Stoliarenko, showing aggression and power at 140 lbs. In July 2023, she moved up to featherweight and was outclassed. Back at bantamweight now, Chandler aims to rebound. Joselyne “La Pantera” Edwards (14–6) has been active, but her fights often end in narrow decisions. She’s 3–2 in her last 5, with her last three fights all being split decisions. Most recently, Edwards lost a unanimous decision in Feb 2024, where she was taken down and controlled. So, Chandler is 1–1 in UFC, Edwards is on a losing streak.

Injuries & Layoffs: Chandler, 29, took some damage but mostly was outpointed; no known injuries. She’s had 9 months off to improve and drop back down in weight properly. Edwards, 27, fought 2 months ago – a quick turnaround. She didn’t sustain major damage. However, Edwards has missed weight in recent bouts, underscoring difficulties at 135; this fight at bantamweight will be telling. Both should be healthy, with Edwards having the recent activity edge and Chandler likely making adjustments in her long camp.

Fight Style and Tendencies: Chandler is a pressure fighter/brawler with a BJJ background. She fights southpaw and likes to wing heavy left hands and knees. She’s strong in the clinch and has decent takedowns. Edwards is a long, rangy kickboxer who often fights off the back foot. She has a wide stance, lots of teep kicks and jabs. She can be low-output and too content to counter, which results in razor-close decisions. Grappling-wise, Edwards’ defensive wrestling is a weak point – strong grapplers have taken her down repeatedly. On the mat, Edwards has some armbar wins but hasn’t threatened much off her back in the UFC. Chandler’s grappling is decent; if she gameplans to exploit that, she could look for takedowns or clinch work.

Stat Comparison: Size: Similar height (both 5′8″) but Edwards has a reach advantage (70″ vs. Chandler’s 68″). Striking: Edwards lands 3.5 sig strikes/min, Chandler 5.5/min. Edwards is more accurate, Chandler more power. Grappling: Chandler averages ~1.5 takedowns per fight. Edwards’ TDD is ~47%. Cardio: Edwards has gone the distance many times. Chandler’s cardio is less proven – she slowed in her last fight, partly due to size difference.

Prediction: This matchup might come down to who imposes their fight – Chandler making it ugly vs. Edwards keeping it clean. Chandler likely learned she can’t strike wildly against a technical striker without setting it up. Look for Chandler to cut off the cage and force Edwards into close-quarters. Edwards will want to stick and move, using front kicks to keep Chandler at bay. If Chandler mixes in takedowns, she could exploit Edwards’ wrestling. We lean towards Chandler making the fight gritty. Chelsea Chandler by decision.

Fight Ending Expectation: Likely a decision. Edwards is a decision machine. Chandler, while a finisher regionally, faces a durable opponent – Edwards has never been KO’d. A submission is also unlikely. So decision is the safe bet – ~70% chance. If a finish occurs, Chandler by TKO.

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Lightweight: Evan Elder vs. Gauge Young

Recent Form: Evan Elder (9–2) scored his first UFC victory in August 2023, defeating Genaro Valdéz by unanimous decision with a well-rounded performance. Before that, Elder had two tough luck losses: a doctor stoppage TKO and a decision loss on short notice. At just 26, Elder has been improving each outing. Gauge “Gee Money” Young (9–2) is a UFC newcomer on short notice. He was signed just a week out from the event due to the original opponent dropping off. Young comes from the regional scene where he was a standout with a reputation as a finisher – 6 of his 9 wins by KO. He fought on Contender Series but lost a decision, so this is a second chance for him. In summary, Elder has UFC experience and is coming off a win, while Young is making a fast-track debut riding some regional momentum.

Injuries & Layoffs: Elder fought ~8 months ago, plenty of time to rest and improve. No injuries reported. Young fought and lost on Contender Series in August 2024 and won a regional fight after, so he’s been active. However, taking a fight on one week’s notice is challenging – Young didn’t get a full UFC camp. On the flip side, he’s in fighting shape having prepared as a backup. Elder was preparing for a different opponent but likely sticks to his same game plan. Conditioning could favor Elder, but Young is known for early explosiveness.

Fight Style and Tendencies: Elder is a well-rounded fighter: he strikes decently, mixing punching combinations with kicks, and he wrestles when advantageous. He showed patience and technique, not getting lured into a brawl, instead landing takedowns and control when needed. Young is a power striker. On the regional scene, he has multiple first-round knockouts. He throws with serious intent – heavy overhands, hooks, and hard low kicks. Young can be wild at times, going for the finish if he smells blood. His grappling is a question mark; in his Contender Series loss, he was outpointed by a more technical fighter who avoided trading with him. Young’s defensive wrestling and ground game haven’t been tested against UFC-level competition.

Stat Comparison: Elder’s UFC stats: 3.3 sig strikes landed/min, 2.9 absorbed – fairly balanced. He’s shown good takedown ability (2 takedowns against Valdez) and 100% takedown defense so far. Young’s stats are all pre-UFC, but he touts a 67% KO rate, indicating finishing prowess. Physical: Both are lightweights, Elder ~5′10″, Young 5′9″. Reach likely ~72″ each. Elder probably has a grappling edge; Young a power edge. Cardio: Elder went a hard 3 rounds and looked fine late. Young tends to finish early – his only decision wins/losses showed he can do three rounds, but he’s far less potent if it goes that long. Short notice could further tax Young’s cardio if it goes past a round or two.

Prediction: Given the short notice and stylistic matchup, Elder is rightly favored. He has to be careful in round 1 because Young will throw bombs with nothing to lose. Elder’s chin has held up so far. If he stays defensively sound and perhaps leans on his wrestling early, he can blunt Young’s attack. As the fight progresses, Elder’s superior experience and cardio should take over. We might see Young start strong but Elder’s combination of striking and takedowns wears on him. Evan Elder by submission in Round 3. Once Young slows down, Elder could find an opening to take the back or lock in a choke. Elder might also win by decision if Young stays tough.

Fight Ending Expectation: This fight is tricky: Young is a finisher, Elder is more decision-prone but has finishing capability. Considering Young’s short notice and kill-or-be-killed style, a finish is slightly more likely. If Elder wants to play it safe, he could grind out a decision. However, with Young’s aggressive approach, either he will catch Elder early or Elder will capitalize on Young’s mistakes later. We lean about 65% chance of a finish (either Young early KO or Elder late sub/GnP, with Elder late finish more likely), and 35% chance of a decision.

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Summary Table of Predicted Outcomes

Each fight carries its own intrigue, and if these predictions hold, we’ll see a mix of razor-thin decisions and highlight-reel finishes come fight night. Expect plenty of action and momentum-shifting moments throughout the evening.