Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: A Comprehensive Game Preview
Introduction: A Crucial Matchup in the Summer Race
On July 11, 2025, the Washington Nationals will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers in what promises to be an exciting mid-season matchup. As we move deeper into the summer and closer to the critical stages of the playoff race, both teams find themselves in intriguing positions. The Nationals, currently sitting third in the National League East, are striving to maintain momentum and edge closer to a potential Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Brewers stand second in the National League Central, battling the Chicago Cubs for the division lead. Given the stakes, this game could hold significant implications for both teams’ postseason aspirations.
Recent Performance: Momentum on the Line
Washington Nationals
The Nationals have shown mixed form over their last 10 games, recording a 5-5 record. Recent standout performances include a series win against the Philadelphia Phillies, highlighted by a thrilling 7-6 victory in extra innings. However, they followed that with a tough series loss against divisional rivals, the Atlanta Braves, exhibiting both strengths and weaknesses. Washington has struggled with consistency, often combining explosive offensive displays with shaky pitching performances. Notably, they snapped a three-game losing streak with a convincing 8-2 win, showing signs of regaining their rhythm.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have performed slightly better in their last 10 outings, boasting a 6-4 record. Most recently, they secured a significant series win over the St. Louis Cardinals, underpinned by strong starting pitching and timely hitting. Milwaukee enters this game on the back of a two-game winning streak, which has seen their offense clicking at the right time. With an average of 5.4 runs per game over this stretch, they have certainly shown they can score in bunches when necessary.
Head-to-Head History: A Rivalry Renewed
This season, the Brewers lead the season series against the Nationals, having won three out of five previous encounters. Historically, Milwaukee has had the upper hand, winning eight of the last 12 meetings between these two clubs. However, the Nationals are known for their resilience, often playing competitively against the Brewers, which sets up an enticing storyline for this mid-season clash.
Pitching Matchups: A Clash of Aces
Washington Nationals
The Nationals will send their ace, right-hander Josiah Gray, to the mound. Gray has been a cornerstone for Washington this season, boasting a solid ERA of 3.45 and a WHIP of 1.21, with an impressive strikeout rate of 9.7 K/9. Gray has been particularly effective in his last outing, pitching a gem against the Phillies, with 7 innings of one-run ball and 10 strikeouts. His form and poise on the mound could be pivotal for the Nationals.
Milwaukee Brewers
For Milwaukee, Brandon Woodruff will get the start. Known for his electric fastball and sharp breaking pitches, Woodruff sports a 3.15 ERA and a WHIP of 1.07, with a remarkable 10.3 K/9. Though he struggled slightly in his most recent start against the Cubs, allowing four runs over six innings, Woodruff remains a formidable presence on the mound and is capable of dominating any lineup on his day.
Key Position-Player Matchups: Stars in the Spotlight
Washington Nationals
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Juan Soto: The Nationals’ superstar continues to be their offensive linchpin with a .325 average, a 1.050 OPS, 25 home runs, and 65 RBIs. Soto’s plate discipline and power make him a constant threat, especially against a fastball-heavy pitcher like Woodruff.
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Keibert Ruiz: The young catcher has developed into a reliable hitter this season, batting .290 with a .780 OPS and 10 home runs. His ability to handle the bat in crucial situations will be crucial for the Nationals against Milwaukee’s pitching.
Milwaukee Brewers
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Christian Yelich: The former MVP is having a bounce-back season, hitting .295 with a .940 OPS, 22 home runs, and 68 RBIs. His track record against the Nationals, paired with his recent form, makes him a key player to watch.
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Willy Adames: Known for his clutch hitting, Adames brings power to the Brewers’ lineup, with 18 home runs and a .830 OPS. His performance against Gray could be a deciding factor in the game’s outcome.
Situational Factors: The Battlefield
The game will take place at American Family Field, known for being a hitter-friendly venue, especially during the summer months. The weather forecast predicts mild conditions with temperatures around 75°F, which should not significantly impact play. Injuries have been limited for both teams, with each expected to field their strongest available lineup.
Advanced Metrics: Deeper Insights
Washington Nationals
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wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus): At 105, the Nationals’ offense is slightly above league average, showcasing their ability to produce runs effectively.
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FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): Gray’s FIP of 3.60 indicates that his success is not a fluke, as it closely aligns with his actual ERA, underscoring his effectiveness.
Milwaukee Brewers
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wRC+: The Brewers stand at 110, reflecting a well-rounded offense capable of scoring from various parts of the lineup.
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WAR (Wins Above Replacement): Woodruff’s WAR of 3.5 highlights his significant contribution to the team’s success, emphasizing his value as a top-tier starter.
Prediction: Brewers Have the Edge
Given the current form and head-to-head history, the Milwaukee Brewers seem to have a slight edge over the Nationals. While Washington offers a potent lineup and a formidable pitcher in Gray, Milwaukee’s recent offensive surge and Woodruff’s overall dominance tip the scales in their favor for this matchup. I predict the Brewers will take this game with a final score of 5-3. I’m 65% confident in the Brewers securing this win, largely due to their home-field advantage and Woodruff’s prowess on the mound.
| Player Name | Prop | Prediction | Line | Trends | Last 3 Games | Wind | Team | Odds | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brandon Young | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 3.25 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Baltimore Orioles | -155 | 07-08 |
| Brandon Young | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 3.75 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Baltimore Orioles | -305 | 07-08 |
| Brandon Young | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 2.75 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Baltimore Orioles | -145 | 07-08 |
 Brayan Bello | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.07 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Boston Red Sox | -145 | 07-08 |
| Brayan Bello | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 3.93 | Over Hit 1/3 | Bad | Boston Red Sox | -385 | 07-08 |
| Brayan Bello | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 2.36 | Over Hit 1/3 | Bad | Boston Red Sox | -150 | 07-08 |
 Chris Bassitt | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 2.67 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Toronto Blue Jays | 120 | 07-08 |
| Chris Bassitt | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 5.67 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad | Toronto Blue Jays | -360 | 07-08 |
| Chris Bassitt | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.56 | Under Hit 1/3 | Bad | Toronto Blue Jays | 110 | 07-08 |
 Clay Holmes | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.82 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  New York Mets | -135 | 07-08 |
| Clay Holmes | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 4.47 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral | New York Mets | -275 | 07-08 |
| Clay Holmes | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 2.29 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | New York Mets | -180 | 07-08 |
 Clayton Kershaw | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.89 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Los Angeles Dodgers | -155 | 07-08 |
| Clayton Kershaw | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 3.56 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Dodgers | -480 | 07-08 |
| Clayton Kershaw | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.56 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Dodgers | -115 | 07-08 |
 Hunter Brown | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 1.5 | 1.24 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Houston Astros | -110 | 07-08 |
| Hunter Brown | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 7.41 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Houston Astros | -335 | 07-08 |
| Hunter Brown | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.71 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Houston Astros | 135 | 07-08 |
 Jack Flaherty | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 1.5 | 2.82 | Over Hit 3/3 | Good |  Detroit Tigers | -170 | 07-08 |
| Jack Flaherty | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 6.41 | Over Hit 2/3 | Good | Detroit Tigers | -295 | 07-08 |
| Jack Flaherty | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 2.18 | Over Hit 3/3 | Good | Detroit Tigers | -160 | 07-08 |
 Jacob Misiorowski | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.75 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Milwaukee Brewers | -185 | 07-08 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 5.25 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Milwaukee Brewers | -400 | 07-08 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 2.5 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Milwaukee Brewers | -170 | 07-08 |
 Jake Irvin | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 3.06 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Washington Nationals | -150 | 07-08 |
| Jake Irvin | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 4.17 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Washington Nationals | -265 | 07-08 |
 Jeffrey Springs | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.44 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Oakland Athletics | 115 | 07-08 |
| Jeffrey Springs | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 4.5 | 4.39 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Oakland Athletics | -115 | 07-08 |
| Jeffrey Springs | pitcher_walks | Under | 2.5 | 2.06 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Oakland Athletics | -190 | 07-08 |
 Joey Cantillo | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 1.5 | 0.55 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Cleveland Guardians | 125 | 07-08 |
| Joey Cantillo | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 3.5 | 1.86 | Under Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Cleveland Guardians | 188 | 07-08 |
| Joey Cantillo | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 0.77 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Cleveland Guardians | 145 | 07-08 |
 Jose Soriano | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 2.39 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral |  Los Angeles Angels | 100 | 07-08 |
| Jose Soriano | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 5.06 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Angels | -375 | 07-08 |
| Jose Soriano | pitcher_walks | Over | 2.5 | 2.61 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Los Angeles Angels | 125 | 07-08 |
 Kyle Freeland | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 3.5 | 3.19 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Colorado Rockies | -145 | 07-08 |
| Kyle Freeland | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 3.81 | Over Hit 1/3 | Bad | Colorado Rockies | -210 | 07-08 |
| Kyle Freeland | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.25 | Under Hit 0/3 | Bad | Colorado Rockies | -170 | 07-08 |
 Logan Gilbert | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.9 | Under Hit 1/3 | Neutral |  Seattle Mariners | -130 | 07-08 |
| Logan Gilbert | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 5.5 | 7.4 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Seattle Mariners | -315 | 07-08 |
| Logan Gilbert | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.1 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Seattle Mariners | -135 | 07-08 |
 Merrill Kelly | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 2.5 | 2.28 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad |  Arizona Diamondbacks | -105 | 07-08 |
| Merrill Kelly | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 5.72 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad | Arizona Diamondbacks | -230 | 07-08 |
| Merrill Kelly | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 1.61 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad | Arizona Diamondbacks | -105 | 07-08 |
 Mitch Keller | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.39 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Pittsburgh Pirates | -110 | 07-08 |
| Mitch Keller | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 4.67 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Pittsburgh Pirates | -480 | 07-08 |
| Mitch Keller | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 1.44 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Pittsburgh Pirates | 145 | 07-08 |
 Nathan Eovaldi | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 1.5 | 1.07 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Texas Rangers | 130 | 07-08 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 5.71 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Texas Rangers | -360 | 07-08 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 0.93 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Texas Rangers | -160 | 07-08 |
 Nick Martinez | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.47 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Cincinnati Reds | 110 | 07-08 |
| Nick Martinez | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 3.74 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral | Cincinnati Reds | -455 | 07-08 |
| Nick Martinez | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.11 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Cincinnati Reds | -200 | 07-08 |
 Nick Pivetta | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 1.5 | 2.06 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad |  San Diego Padres | 120 | 07-08 |
| Nick Pivetta | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 6.29 | Over Hit 2/3 | Bad | San Diego Padres | -335 | 07-08 |
| Nick Pivetta | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.41 | Under Hit 2/3 | Bad | San Diego Padres | -130 | 07-08 |
 Robbie Ray | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.78 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  San Francisco Giants | -145 | 07-08 |
| Robbie Ray | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 6.5 | 6.5 | Under Hit 1/3 | Neutral | San Francisco Giants | -120 | 07-08 |
 Ryan Pepiot | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.11 | Under Hit 2/3 | Good |  Tampa Bay Rays | -150 | 07-08 |
| Ryan Pepiot | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 5.61 | Over Hit 2/3 | Good | Tampa Bay Rays | -245 | 07-08 |
| Ryan Pepiot | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 1.83 | Over Hit 3/3 | Good | Tampa Bay Rays | -150 | 07-08 |
 Seth Lugo | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.75 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Kansas City Royals | -160 | 07-08 |
| Seth Lugo | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 5.19 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Kansas City Royals | -295 | 07-08 |
| Seth Lugo | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 1.88 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Kansas City Royals | -110 | 07-08 |
 Shota Imanaga | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.7 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Chicago Cubs | -120 | 07-08 |
| Shota Imanaga | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 3.5 | 4.1 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Chicago Cubs | -400 | 07-08 |
| Shota Imanaga | pitcher_walks | Under | 1.5 | 1.5 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Chicago Cubs | -190 | 07-08 |
 Simeon Woods Richardson | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.38 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  Minnesota Twins | 100 | 07-08 |
| Simeon Woods Richardson | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 2.5 | 4.23 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Minnesota Twins | -420 | 07-08 |
| Simeon Woods Richardson | pitcher_walks | Over | 1.5 | 1.85 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | Minnesota Twins | -200 | 07-08 |
 Sonny Gray | pitcher_earned_runs | Over | 1.5 | 2.29 | Over Hit 1/3 | Neutral |  St. Louis Cardinals | -130 | 07-08 |
| Sonny Gray | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 6.29 | Over Hit 3/3 | Neutral | St. Louis Cardinals | -250 | 07-08 |
 Taijuan Walker | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 1.16 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral |  Philadelphia Phillies | -175 | 07-08 |
| Taijuan Walker | pitcher_strikeouts | Under | 2.5 | 2.42 | Under Hit 3/3 | Neutral | Philadelphia Phillies | 115 | 07-08 |
 Will Warren | pitcher_earned_runs | Under | 2.5 | 2.61 | Under Hit 2/3 | Neutral |  New York Yankees | -115 | 07-08 |
| Will Warren | pitcher_strikeouts | Over | 4.5 | 5.94 | Over Hit 2/3 | Neutral | New York Yankees | -278 | 07-08 |
| Will Warren | pitcher_walks | Under | 2.5 | 2.17 | Under Hit 1/3 | Neutral | New York Yankees | -165 | 07-08 |
