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Three NFL Teams That Could Outperform Their 2026 Super Bowl Expectations

Every NFL season brings surprises, as teams with seemingly long odds find ways to surpass expectations. Last season, that honor went to the upstart Washington Commanders. 

No one had the Capital City outfit down as a Lombardi contender in preseason, even after they selected LSU sensation Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick in the draft. The Commanders managed just four wins in the entirety of the 2023 campaign and surely they needed much more than a franchise quarterback to resurrect their ailing franchise. Well, apparently not. 

Washington proceeded to rip up the script last term, beating teams such as the Cincinnati Bengals in the campaign opening phases, before pressing on with victories against the likes of the Cardinals and the Browns. Two victories at the end of the season against divisional rivals in the form of the eventual champion Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys helped the Commanders surprisingly succeed in their race for the playoffs, and they weren’t finished there. 

They proceeded to dispatch the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wildcard round, before stunning the Lombardi favorite Detroit Lions to secure a spot in the Conference Championships. Their run unfortunately came to an end there, but after their exploits last term, the bookies think that they have a decent chance of reaching the 2026 Super Bowl next season. 

While Washington has announced itself as a contender, some teams are aiming to emulate their exploits last term and arrive out of nowhere to mount a deep postseason run. Here are three teams that we think could outperform their lowly close-season expectations. 

Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins enter 2025 with many questions surrounding their current trajectory. A frustrating 2024 campaign saw them limp home with a dismal 7-10 record, a major disappointment after reaching the playoffs in each of the two proceeding campaigns. Yet, anyone who’s followed this franchise knows it boasts a core that’s too talented to count out entirely.

Key offensive pieces like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa struggled to maintain consistency last year. Tagovailoa, in particular, faced injury concerns that mirrored previous seasons, derailing Miami’s fast-paced, aggressive style. The fact of the matter is this: When he is fit, the Floridians are a force to be reckoned with. When he is not, they’re one of the worst teams in the league. 

As such then, keeping the former Alabama Crimson Tide star fit and healthy is the number one order of business. If they can do that, then the online betting sites could well be forced to eat their words. Websites such as the popular crypto betting site Thunderpick currently make the Dolphins a mighty +7500 outsider for the Lombardi next term, odds which are longer than the likes of the Dallas Cowboys and the Chicago Bears. It seems Thunderpick isn’t counting them as serious contenders yet, but could that change?

With Tua under center and head coach Mike McDaniel showcasing one of the most creative offensive schemes in the NFL, Miami’s high-octane offense could wreak havoc on defenses. Their AFC East division remains tough with the heavyweight Buffalo Bills, but both the Jets and the Patriots are at low points in their recent history, and that makes the chance of reaching the playoffs at the very least a distinct possibility. 

Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos emerged from their turbulent 2023 season with a renewed sense of direction under head coach Sean Payton. After the disappointment of the Russell Wilson era – with Denver literally paying the former Super Bowl winner to leave the team – rookie Bo Nix emerged as a superstar and the face of the franchise. He had a stellar year last term, throwing for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns as he helped the Mile High outfit return to the postseason against all odds. 

But while Nix is without doubt a sensation, perhaps Denver’s most pivotal X-factor will be its defense. Led by standout players such as cornerback Patrick Surtain II and linebacker Josey Jewell, the Broncos have a defensive core capable of keeping any game close. They allowed just 311 points last season, the third lowest in the league behind the Eagles and the Chargers, and a similar display next season could see them outperform their Super Bowl odds of +4000. 

Houston Texans

Few franchises have undergone as swift a transformation as the Houston Texans in recent seasons. After hitting rock bottom in past years, Houston went all-in on a rebuild, culminating in a shock divisional title win in 2023 under the stewardship of rookie sensation C. J. Stroud. In 2024, he was on form once again as the Lone Star State outfit successfully defended the AFC South, as well as reaching the Divisional Round of the playoffs for the second straight year. 

As such then, it comes as quite a surprise to see them listed as +3500 outsiders for the Lombardi, especially after the bookies had them listed as a top-five contender last season. Yes, Stefon Diggs has departed, but Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Joe Mixon all remain at NRG stadium, providing a strong spine that can take the fight to anybody on their day. 

But despite that attacking arsenal, Stroud remains the cornerstone of the team. The 2023 number two overall pick threw for over 3,700 yards last season, down from his rookie campaign total of 4,108. But even though he slowed down, at just 23 years of age, he has plenty of room to improve further, and fans should expect him to deliver many standout performances as his side gun for a three-peat of Divisional titles for the first time in their history.