New York Mets vs. Kansas City Royals: 2025 MLB Game Preview

Introduction: The Matchup

On July 11, 2025, the New York Mets will clash with the Kansas City Royals in a matchup that carries significant implications for both teams as they navigate the treacherous waters of the MLB season. The Mets, currently third in the National League East, are making a strong push towards claiming a Wild Card spot, while the Royals, though fourth in the American League Central, are striving to stay relevant in a competitive division. This game is more than just a meeting of two teams; it’s a pivotal moment that may influence their respective playoff trajectories. With the regular season now entering its critical stages, every victory holds heightened importance.

Recent Performance: A Tale of Two Teams

The New York Mets have shown remarkable resilience over their last 10 games, sporting a 7-3 record. During this stretch, the team embarked on a five-game winning streak that was only halted by a close loss to the Atlanta Braves. Their recent victories were fueled by stellar pitching performances and timely hitting, including a walk-off home run by Francisco Lindor against the Phillies, highlighting their never-say-die attitude.

Conversely, the Kansas City Royals are on a rough patch, with a 3-7 record in their last 10 outings. Their struggles have been particularly acute on the pitching front, where they’ve allowed an average of six runs per game. A notable low point was a 2-11 drubbing by the Minnesota Twins. Despite these challenges, the Royals have seen bright spots, such as Bobby Witt Jr.’s impressive offensive output, adding five home runs during this period.

Head-to-Head History: The Season Series

In their season series thus far, the Mets have had the upper hand, winning three out of four games against the Royals. Historically, the Mets have dominated this matchup, winning eight of the last ten meetings. This history gives the Mets a psychological edge, but with each game carrying new dynamics, the Royals will be eager to disrupt this trend.

Pitching Matchups: A Battle on the Mound

The Mets will send their ace, Jacob deGrom, to the mound. Despite a brief stint on the injured list earlier in the season, deGrom has been nothing short of spectacular, boasting a 2.45 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 12 strikeouts per nine innings. His last outing saw him pitch a complete game shutout against the Nationals, striking out 14 batters in a dominant performance.

Opposing him will be the Royals’ promising young right-hander, Brady Singer. Singer’s season stats reflect growing pains typical of a developing pitcher, with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. While he has shown flashes of brilliance, such as a seven-inning, one-run performance against the Tigers, his inconsistency remains a challenge. This matchup against deGrom presents a daunting task, but also an opportunity for Singer to rise to the occasion.

Key Position-Player Matchups: Batting Powerhouses

For the Mets, Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are critical to their offensive success. Alonso, with a .275 batting average, 32 home runs, and 90 RBIs, has been a powerhouse, particularly against right-handed pitching. Lindor, hitting .285 with an .850 OPS, complements Alonso with his ability to reach base and generate runs. Both players will be pivotal in challenging Singer’s resolve.

The Royals will look to Bobby Witt Jr. and MJ Melendez to provide offensive firepower. Witt Jr. boasts a .295 average, a .900 OPS, and 25 home runs, showcasing his blend of power and speed. Melendez, though hitting at a slightly lower .260, has a knack for getting on base (.340 OBP) and can change a game with one swing. Their ability to combat deGrom’s elite pitching will be crucial to the Royals’ hopes.

Situational Factors: Venue and Conditions

The game will take place at Citi Field, home to the Mets, where they enjoy a slight park factor advantage in terms of suppressing home runs, which might work against power-reliant teams like the Royals. Weather forecasts predict a mild evening with temperatures around 78°F and low humidity, likely resulting in favorable conditions for pitchers.

Injury-wise, both teams are relatively healthy, though the Royals are still missing veteran Salvador Pérez, who is on the injured list with a knee issue. His absence has been felt both behind the plate and in the lineup.

Advanced Metrics: In-Depth Insights

From a sabermetric perspective, the Mets possess a team wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) of 110, indicating a well-above-average offensive unit that excels at creating runs. Additionally, their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.75 reflects a strong pitching staff that effectively limits opponents’ offensive production.

On the other hand, the Royals have a team wRC+ of 95, slightly below league average, illustrating their struggles to generate consistent offensive output. Their team FIP of 4.50 suggests vulnerabilities in their pitching staff, further emphasized by their recent performance woes.

Prediction: Final Thoughts

Considering the superior form and depth of the New York Mets, combined with the pitching matchup heavily favoring deGrom over Singer, the Mets are well-positioned to secure a victory. I predict a final score of Mets 6, Royals 2. While baseball remains unpredictable, I am 70% confident in a Mets win, given their current momentum, historical dominance over the Royals, and the ace advantage on the mound. As the Mets continue their playoff push, this game could serve as another step towards securing a postseason berth.

Player Name	Prop	Prediction	Line	Trends	Last 3 Games	Wind	Team	Odds	Date
Brandon Young	pitcher_earned_runs	Over	2.5	3.25	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Baltimore Orioles	-155	07-08
Brandon Young	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	2.5	3.75	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Baltimore Orioles	-305	07-08
Brandon Young	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	2.75	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Baltimore Orioles	-145	07-08
Brayan Bello	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	2.07	Under Hit 2/3	Bad	Boston Red Sox	-145	07-08
Brayan Bello	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	3.93	Over Hit 1/3	Bad	Boston Red Sox	-385	07-08
Brayan Bello	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	2.36	Over Hit 1/3	Bad	Boston Red Sox	-150	07-08
Chris Bassitt	pitcher_earned_runs	Over	2.5	2.67	Over Hit 2/3	Bad	Toronto Blue Jays	120	07-08
Chris Bassitt	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	5.67	Over Hit 2/3	Bad	Toronto Blue Jays	-360	07-08
Chris Bassitt	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.56	Under Hit 1/3	Bad	Toronto Blue Jays	110	07-08
Clay Holmes	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.82	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	New York Mets	-135	07-08
Clay Holmes	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	4.47	Over Hit 1/3	Neutral	New York Mets	-275	07-08
Clay Holmes	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	2.29	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	New York Mets	-180	07-08
Clayton Kershaw	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.89	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Los Angeles Dodgers	-155	07-08
Clayton Kershaw	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	2.5	3.56	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Los Angeles Dodgers	-480	07-08
Clayton Kershaw	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.56	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Los Angeles Dodgers	-115	07-08
Hunter Brown	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	1.5	1.24	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Houston Astros	-110	07-08
Hunter Brown	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	5.5	7.41	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Houston Astros	-335	07-08
Hunter Brown	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.71	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Houston Astros	135	07-08
Jack Flaherty	pitcher_earned_runs	Over	1.5	2.82	Over Hit 3/3	Good	Detroit Tigers	-170	07-08
Jack Flaherty	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	4.5	6.41	Over Hit 2/3	Good	Detroit Tigers	-295	07-08
Jack Flaherty	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	2.18	Over Hit 3/3	Good	Detroit Tigers	-160	07-08
Jacob Misiorowski	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.75	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Milwaukee Brewers	-185	07-08
Jacob Misiorowski	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	5.25	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Milwaukee Brewers	-400	07-08
Jacob Misiorowski	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	2.5	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Milwaukee Brewers	-170	07-08
Jake Irvin	pitcher_earned_runs	Over	2.5	3.06	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Washington Nationals	-150	07-08
Jake Irvin	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	2.5	4.17	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Washington Nationals	-265	07-08
Jeffrey Springs	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	2.44	Under Hit 3/3	Neutral	Oakland Athletics	115	07-08
Jeffrey Springs	pitcher_strikeouts	Under	4.5	4.39	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Oakland Athletics	-115	07-08
Jeffrey Springs	pitcher_walks	Under	2.5	2.06	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Oakland Athletics	-190	07-08
Joey Cantillo	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	1.5	0.55	Under Hit 3/3	Neutral	Cleveland Guardians	125	07-08
Joey Cantillo	pitcher_strikeouts	Under	3.5	1.86	Under Hit 1/3	Neutral	Cleveland Guardians	188	07-08
Joey Cantillo	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	0.77	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Cleveland Guardians	145	07-08
Jose Soriano	pitcher_earned_runs	Over	2.5	2.39	Over Hit 1/3	Neutral	Los Angeles Angels	100	07-08
Jose Soriano	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	5.06	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Los Angeles Angels	-375	07-08
Jose Soriano	pitcher_walks	Over	2.5	2.61	Over Hit 1/3	Neutral	Los Angeles Angels	125	07-08
Kyle Freeland	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	3.5	3.19	Under Hit 2/3	Bad	Colorado Rockies	-145	07-08
Kyle Freeland	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	3.81	Over Hit 1/3	Bad	Colorado Rockies	-210	07-08
Kyle Freeland	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.25	Under Hit 0/3	Bad	Colorado Rockies	-170	07-08
Logan Gilbert	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.9	Under Hit 1/3	Neutral	Seattle Mariners	-130	07-08
Logan Gilbert	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	5.5	7.4	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Seattle Mariners	-315	07-08
Logan Gilbert	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.1	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Seattle Mariners	-135	07-08
Merrill Kelly	pitcher_earned_runs	Over	2.5	2.28	Over Hit 2/3	Bad	Arizona Diamondbacks	-105	07-08
Merrill Kelly	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	5.72	Over Hit 2/3	Bad	Arizona Diamondbacks	-230	07-08
Merrill Kelly	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	1.61	Over Hit 2/3	Bad	Arizona Diamondbacks	-105	07-08
Mitch Keller	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	2.39	Under Hit 3/3	Neutral	Pittsburgh Pirates	-110	07-08
Mitch Keller	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	2.5	4.67	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Pittsburgh Pirates	-480	07-08
Mitch Keller	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	1.44	Over Hit 1/3	Neutral	Pittsburgh Pirates	145	07-08
Nathan Eovaldi	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	1.5	1.07	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Texas Rangers	130	07-08
Nathan Eovaldi	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	4.5	5.71	Over Hit 1/3	Neutral	Texas Rangers	-360	07-08
Nathan Eovaldi	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	0.93	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Texas Rangers	-160	07-08
Nick Martinez	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	2.47	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Cincinnati Reds	110	07-08
Nick Martinez	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	2.5	3.74	Over Hit 1/3	Neutral	Cincinnati Reds	-455	07-08
Nick Martinez	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.11	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Cincinnati Reds	-200	07-08
Nick Pivetta	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	1.5	2.06	Under Hit 2/3	Bad	San Diego Padres	120	07-08
Nick Pivetta	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	4.5	6.29	Over Hit 2/3	Bad	San Diego Padres	-335	07-08
Nick Pivetta	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.41	Under Hit 2/3	Bad	San Diego Padres	-130	07-08
Robbie Ray	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.78	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	San Francisco Giants	-145	07-08
Robbie Ray	pitcher_strikeouts	Under	6.5	6.5	Under Hit 1/3	Neutral	San Francisco Giants	-120	07-08
Ryan Pepiot	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	2.11	Under Hit 2/3	Good	Tampa Bay Rays	-150	07-08
Ryan Pepiot	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	4.5	5.61	Over Hit 2/3	Good	Tampa Bay Rays	-245	07-08
Ryan Pepiot	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	1.83	Over Hit 3/3	Good	Tampa Bay Rays	-150	07-08
Seth Lugo	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.75	Under Hit 3/3	Neutral	Kansas City Royals	-160	07-08
Seth Lugo	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	4.5	5.19	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Kansas City Royals	-295	07-08
Seth Lugo	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	1.88	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Kansas City Royals	-110	07-08
Shota Imanaga	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.7	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Chicago Cubs	-120	07-08
Shota Imanaga	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	4.1	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Chicago Cubs	-400	07-08
Shota Imanaga	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.5	Under Hit 3/3	Neutral	Chicago Cubs	-190	07-08
Simeon Woods Richardson	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	2.38	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Minnesota Twins	100	07-08
Simeon Woods Richardson	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	2.5	4.23	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Minnesota Twins	-420	07-08
Simeon Woods Richardson	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	1.85	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Minnesota Twins	-200	07-08
Sonny Gray	pitcher_earned_runs	Over	1.5	2.29	Over Hit 1/3	Neutral	St. Louis Cardinals	-130	07-08
Sonny Gray	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	4.5	6.29	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	St. Louis Cardinals	-250	07-08
Taijuan Walker	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.16	Under Hit 3/3	Neutral	Philadelphia Phillies	-175	07-08
Taijuan Walker	pitcher_strikeouts	Under	2.5	2.42	Under Hit 3/3	Neutral	Philadelphia Phillies	115	07-08
Will Warren	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	2.61	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	New York Yankees	-115	07-08
Will Warren	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	4.5	5.94	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	New York Yankees	-278	07-08
Will Warren	pitcher_walks	Under	2.5	2.17	Under Hit 1/3	Neutral	New York Yankees	-165	07-08