Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – MLB Preview, Picks & Analysis

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Prediction - MLB Preview, Picks & Analysis

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Minnesota Twins: A Comprehensive Game Preview

Introduction to the Matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face off against the Minnesota Twins in an intriguing interleague matchup on July 11, 2025. This encounter carries significant weight as both teams find themselves in the thick of their respective playoff races. The Pirates, currently sitting third in the NL Central, are striving to close the gap on the division leaders and secure a Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Twins lead the AL Central and are looking to cement their position and potentially secure home-field advantage in the playoffs. Historically, these teams have not been fierce rivals, but this game’s implications on the postseason landscape make it a must-watch.

Recent Performance Analysis

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have experienced a rollercoaster over their last ten games, posting a 5-5 record. They recently secured a vital series win against the Milwaukee Brewers, which included a thrilling come-from-behind victory highlighted by Bryan Reynolds’ walk-off home run. However, their inconsistency is evident in their road trip prior, where they suffered a sweep against the lowly Colorado Rockies. The Pirates have shown resiliency but need to find more consistent performances against both top-tier and struggling opponents as they eye the postseason.

Minnesota Twins

Conversely, the Twins are riding a four-game winning streak, having swept the Cleveland Guardians in a pivotal division series. Over their last ten games, they boast an impressive 7-3 record. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, with Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa leading the charge. Additionally, their pitching staff has been solid, allowing three or fewer runs in six of their last ten matches. The Twins are peaking at the right time, and their recent form suggests they are well-prepared for the Pirates.

Head-to-Head History

This season, the Pirates and Twins have split their two meetings, each team winning once. Historically, the Twins have had the upper hand, winning 7 of the last 10 encounters. However, interleague play brings uncertainty, adding to the intrigue of this matchup. Both teams will look to establish dominance in this season series with playoff implications on the line.

Pitching Matchups

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates will likely start their ace, Mitch Keller. Keller has been a cornerstone for Pittsburgh this season, posting a 3.25 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP with 142 strikeouts over 120 innings. His arsenal of pitches, particularly his deadly curveball, has been a nightmare for hitters. Despite a rough outing against the Dodgers last week, where he allowed five earned runs, Keller is expected to rebound and deliver a strong performance.

Minnesota Twins

For the Twins, Joe Ryan is slated to take the mound. Ryan has emerged as a formidable starter with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, complemented by 135 strikeouts in 115 innings. Known for his impeccable command and deceptive fastball, Ryan has consistently kept hitters off balance. He’s coming off an eight-inning gem against the White Sox, where he allowed only one run, demonstrating his ability to dominate on the hill.

Key Position-Player Matchups

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Bryan Reynolds: A key cog in the Pirates’ lineup, Reynolds boasts a .290 average with an .870 OPS, alongside 18 home runs and 62 RBIs. His ability to get on base and drive in crucial runs makes him a constant threat.

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes: Known for his defensive prowess, Hayes also contributes significantly at the plate with a .275 average, .775 OPS, and 14 home runs. His matchup against Ryan will be pivotal, as he has shown the ability to handle high-velocity pitches effectively.

Minnesota Twins

  • Byron Buxton: A dynamic player, Buxton has a .270 average with 25 home runs and 60 RBIs, coupled with an impressive .900 OPS. His speed and power make him a dual threat, and he will look to capitalize on any mistakes from Keller.

  • Carlos Correa: The veteran shortstop has been instrumental for the Twins, hitting .280 with a .850 OPS, contributing 20 home runs and 68 RBIs. Correa’s experience and clutch hitting will be crucial against the Pirates’ pitching staff.

Situational Factors

The game will be played at Target Field, the Twins’ home park, which slightly favors pitchers with its spacious outfield dimensions. However, the weather forecast predicts a warm evening with light winds, potentially aiding fly balls to carry further. On the injury front, the Pirates are without their young star Oneil Cruz, sidelined due to a lingering shoulder issue. The Twins are relatively healthy, with no major absence likely to affect their lineup.

Advanced Metrics

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus): The Pirates have a team wRC+ of 98, slightly below league average. This suggests their offense struggles to consistently produce runs, needing improvement to bolster their playoff push.

  • FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): Keller’s FIP is 3.00, indicating that his pitching performance is solid, aligning closely with his ERA. This metric suggests he has been effective beyond luck or defensive support.

Minnesota Twins

  • wRC+: The Twins have a wRC+ of 110, showcasing their offensive prowess as they generate runs at a rate above league average. Their lineup depth has been crucial in sustaining consistent scoring.

  • WAR (Wins Above Replacement): Buxton’s WAR is an impressive 4.5, underlining his all-around contribution to the Twins, both offensively and defensively.

Prediction

Considering the recent form of both teams, the pitching matchup, and the offensive capabilities, this game shapes up to be a tightly contested affair. However, the Twins’ current winning streak and home advantage give them a slight edge. Expect a closely fought game with the Twins emerging victorious with a 5-3 win.

I’m 65% confident in the Twins securing the victory due to their superior form, home-field advantage, and slightly more potent offense. While the Pirates have shown resilience, they may find it challenging to overcome Joe Ryan’s mastery and the Twins’ relentless lineup.

Player NamePropPredictionLineTrendsLast 3 GamesWindTeamOddsDate
Brandon YoungBrandon Young
pitcher_earned_runsOver2.53.25Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles
-15507-08
Brandon YoungBrandon Young
pitcher_strikeoutsOver2.53.75Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles
-30507-08
Brandon YoungBrandon Young
pitcher_walksOver1.52.75Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles
-14507-08
Brayan BelloBrayan Bello
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.52.07Under Hit 2/3Bad
Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox
-14507-08
Brayan BelloBrayan Bello
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.53.93Over Hit 1/3Bad
Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox
-38507-08
Brayan BelloBrayan Bello
pitcher_walksOver1.52.36Over Hit 1/3Bad
Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox
-15007-08
Chris BassittChris Bassitt
pitcher_earned_runsOver2.52.67Over Hit 2/3Bad
Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays
12007-08
Chris BassittChris Bassitt
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.55.67Over Hit 2/3Bad
Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays
-36007-08
Chris BassittChris Bassitt
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.56Under Hit 1/3Bad
Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays
11007-08
Clay HolmesClay Holmes
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.82Under Hit 2/3Neutral
New York MetsNew York Mets
-13507-08
Clay HolmesClay Holmes
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.54.47Over Hit 1/3Neutral
New York MetsNew York Mets
-27507-08
Clay HolmesClay Holmes
pitcher_walksOver1.52.29Over Hit 3/3Neutral
New York MetsNew York Mets
-18007-08
Clayton KershawClayton Kershaw
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.89Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers
-15507-08
Clayton KershawClayton Kershaw
pitcher_strikeoutsOver2.53.56Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers
-48007-08
Clayton KershawClayton Kershaw
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.56Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers
-11507-08
Hunter BrownHunter Brown
pitcher_earned_runsUnder1.51.24Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Houston AstrosHouston Astros
-11007-08
Hunter BrownHunter Brown
pitcher_strikeoutsOver5.57.41Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Houston AstrosHouston Astros
-33507-08
Hunter BrownHunter Brown
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.71Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Houston AstrosHouston Astros
13507-08
Jack FlahertyJack Flaherty
pitcher_earned_runsOver1.52.82Over Hit 3/3Good
Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers
-17007-08
Jack FlahertyJack Flaherty
pitcher_strikeoutsOver4.56.41Over Hit 2/3Good
Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers
-29507-08
Jack FlahertyJack Flaherty
pitcher_walksOver1.52.18Over Hit 3/3Good
Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers
-16007-08
Jacob MisiorowskiJacob Misiorowski
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.75Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers
-18507-08
Jacob MisiorowskiJacob Misiorowski
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.55.25Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers
-40007-08
Jacob MisiorowskiJacob Misiorowski
pitcher_walksOver1.52.5Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers
-17007-08
Jake IrvinJake Irvin
pitcher_earned_runsOver2.53.06Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Washington NationalsWashington Nationals
-15007-08
Jake IrvinJake Irvin
pitcher_strikeoutsOver2.54.17Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Washington NationalsWashington Nationals
-26507-08
Jeffrey SpringsJeffrey Springs
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.52.44Under Hit 3/3Neutral
Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics
11507-08
Jeffrey SpringsJeffrey Springs
pitcher_strikeoutsUnder4.54.39Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics
-11507-08
Jeffrey SpringsJeffrey Springs
pitcher_walksUnder2.52.06Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics
-19007-08
Joey CantilloJoey Cantillo
pitcher_earned_runsUnder1.50.55Under Hit 3/3Neutral
Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians
12507-08
Joey CantilloJoey Cantillo
pitcher_strikeoutsUnder3.51.86Under Hit 1/3Neutral
Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians
18807-08
Joey CantilloJoey Cantillo
pitcher_walksUnder1.50.77Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians
14507-08
Jose SorianoJose Soriano
pitcher_earned_runsOver2.52.39Over Hit 1/3Neutral
Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels
10007-08
Jose SorianoJose Soriano
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.55.06Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels
-37507-08
Jose SorianoJose Soriano
pitcher_walksOver2.52.61Over Hit 1/3Neutral
Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels
12507-08
Kyle FreelandKyle Freeland
pitcher_earned_runsUnder3.53.19Under Hit 2/3Bad
Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies
-14507-08
Kyle FreelandKyle Freeland
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.53.81Over Hit 1/3Bad
Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies
-21007-08
Kyle FreelandKyle Freeland
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.25Under Hit 0/3Bad
Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies
-17007-08
Logan GilbertLogan Gilbert
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.9Under Hit 1/3Neutral
Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners
-13007-08
Logan GilbertLogan Gilbert
pitcher_strikeoutsOver5.57.4Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners
-31507-08
Logan GilbertLogan Gilbert
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.1Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners
-13507-08
Merrill KellyMerrill Kelly
pitcher_earned_runsOver2.52.28Over Hit 2/3Bad
Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks
-10507-08
Merrill KellyMerrill Kelly
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.55.72Over Hit 2/3Bad
Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks
-23007-08
Merrill KellyMerrill Kelly
pitcher_walksOver1.51.61Over Hit 2/3Bad
Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks
-10507-08
Mitch KellerMitch Keller
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.52.39Under Hit 3/3Neutral
Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates
-11007-08
Mitch KellerMitch Keller
pitcher_strikeoutsOver2.54.67Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates
-48007-08
Mitch KellerMitch Keller
pitcher_walksOver1.51.44Over Hit 1/3Neutral
Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates
14507-08
Nathan EovaldiNathan Eovaldi
pitcher_earned_runsUnder1.51.07Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Texas RangersTexas Rangers
13007-08
Nathan EovaldiNathan Eovaldi
pitcher_strikeoutsOver4.55.71Over Hit 1/3Neutral
Texas RangersTexas Rangers
-36007-08
Nathan EovaldiNathan Eovaldi
pitcher_walksUnder1.50.93Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Texas RangersTexas Rangers
-16007-08
Nick MartinezNick Martinez
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.52.47Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds
11007-08
Nick MartinezNick Martinez
pitcher_strikeoutsOver2.53.74Over Hit 1/3Neutral
Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds
-45507-08
Nick MartinezNick Martinez
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.11Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds
-20007-08
Nick PivettaNick Pivetta
pitcher_earned_runsUnder1.52.06Under Hit 2/3Bad
San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres
12007-08
Nick PivettaNick Pivetta
pitcher_strikeoutsOver4.56.29Over Hit 2/3Bad
San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres
-33507-08
Nick PivettaNick Pivetta
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.41Under Hit 2/3Bad
San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres
-13007-08
Robbie RayRobbie Ray
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.78Under Hit 2/3Neutral
San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants
-14507-08
Robbie RayRobbie Ray
pitcher_strikeoutsUnder6.56.5Under Hit 1/3Neutral
San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants
-12007-08
Ryan PepiotRyan Pepiot
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.52.11Under Hit 2/3Good
Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays
-15007-08
Ryan PepiotRyan Pepiot
pitcher_strikeoutsOver4.55.61Over Hit 2/3Good
Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays
-24507-08
Ryan PepiotRyan Pepiot
pitcher_walksOver1.51.83Over Hit 3/3Good
Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays
-15007-08
Seth LugoSeth Lugo
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.75Under Hit 3/3Neutral
Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals
-16007-08
Seth LugoSeth Lugo
pitcher_strikeoutsOver4.55.19Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals
-29507-08
Seth LugoSeth Lugo
pitcher_walksOver1.51.88Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals
-11007-08
Shota ImanagaShota Imanaga
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.7Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Chicago CubsChicago Cubs
-12007-08
Shota ImanagaShota Imanaga
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.54.1Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Chicago CubsChicago Cubs
-40007-08
Shota ImanagaShota Imanaga
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.5Under Hit 3/3Neutral
Chicago CubsChicago Cubs
-19007-08
Simeon Woods RichardsonSimeon Woods Richardson
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.52.38Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins
10007-08
Simeon Woods RichardsonSimeon Woods Richardson
pitcher_strikeoutsOver2.54.23Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins
-42007-08
Simeon Woods RichardsonSimeon Woods Richardson
pitcher_walksOver1.51.85Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins
-20007-08
Sonny GraySonny Gray
pitcher_earned_runsOver1.52.29Over Hit 1/3Neutral
St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals
-13007-08
Sonny GraySonny Gray
pitcher_strikeoutsOver4.56.29Over Hit 3/3Neutral
St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals
-25007-08
Taijuan WalkerTaijuan Walker
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.16Under Hit 3/3Neutral
Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies
-17507-08
Taijuan WalkerTaijuan Walker
pitcher_strikeoutsUnder2.52.42Under Hit 3/3Neutral
Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies
11507-08
Will WarrenWill Warren
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.52.61Under Hit 2/3Neutral
New York YankeesNew York Yankees
-11507-08
Will WarrenWill Warren
pitcher_strikeoutsOver4.55.94Over Hit 2/3Neutral
New York YankeesNew York Yankees
-27807-08
Will WarrenWill Warren
pitcher_walksUnder2.52.17Under Hit 1/3Neutral
New York YankeesNew York Yankees
-16507-08

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