MLB Game Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers — July 11, 2025

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face off against the Detroit Tigers on July 11, 2025, at T-Mobile Park, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in the playoff race. With the season passing its halfway mark, every game holds significant weight, particularly for these two clubs aiming to capture a wild card spot. The Mariners and Tigers have had fluctuating seasons, making this matchup a pivotal point for momentum as they push towards the postseason.

Recent Performances

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners come into this matchup with a slight edge in recent performance, having won 6 of their last 10 games. Their recent form features a three-game win streak, highlighted by a dramatic extra-innings victory against the Texas Rangers last week. This push has helped them hover around the .500 mark, keeping them within striking distance of an AL Wild Card spot. The Mariners’ bullpen has been a standout unit during this stretch, posting a collective ERA of 2.89 over the past 10 games, indicative of their ability to close out games effectively.

Detroit Tigers

Conversely, the Detroit Tigers have struggled somewhat, with a 4-6 record over their last ten games. Despite a promising start to the season, injuries and inconsistency have started to take their toll. However, two recent victories against division rivals, the Chicago White Sox, have shown flashes of the team’s potential. The Tigers’ lineup has experienced ups and downs, but the return of key players from injury has provided an offensive boost, with a noticeable increase in their slugging percentage over the last week.

Head-to-Head History

In their current season series, the Mariners have a slight advantage, leading 3-2 over the Tigers. Historically, Seattle has been dominant in this matchup, winning 7 of the last 10 encounters. T-Mobile Park has often favored the Mariners, but the Tigers have shown they can be competitive in the Pacific Northwest with timely hitting and solid defense.

Pitching Matchups

Seattle Mariners: Luis Castillo

The Mariners will send ace Luis Castillo to the mound. Castillo has been a beacon of consistency this season, boasting a 3.15 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, alongside a strikeout rate of 10.4 K/9 innings. Known for his devastating changeup and fastball combination, Castillo has been particularly effective at home, where he has held opponents to a .220 batting average. Despite a minor hamstring concern earlier this season, he appears healthy and ready to carry the load against the Tigers.

Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize

The Tigers will counter with Casey Mize, a promising young arm who has shown flashes of brilliance this season. Mize carries a 3.78 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings stand at 8.7, reflecting his ability to miss bats with his diverse pitch arsenal, which includes a formidable splitter. However, Mize has struggled with consistency, particularly in his last outing against the Minnesota Twins, where he allowed four runs over five innings.

Key Player Matchups

Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodríguez and Ty France

Julio Rodríguez continues to be a catalyst for the Mariners’ offense. The outfielder is batting .280 with an OPS of .860, contributing 22 home runs and 68 RBIs this season. His ability to hit for power and average makes him a threat every time he steps to the plate. Ty France also provides a steady presence in the lineup, boasting a .310 batting average and an OBP of .395. Both hitters have fared well against power pitchers like Mize, who relies on high-velocity offerings that Rodríguez and France are capable of driving.

Detroit Tigers: Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson

For the Tigers, Riley Greene has been a revelation. The young outfielder is hitting .295 with an OPS of .835, chipping in 18 homers and 60 RBIs. He’s been particularly effective against right-handed pitchers, making him a potential threat against Castillo. Likewise, Spencer Torkelson’s power is evident with 25 home runs this season, although his overall batting average of .250 suggests some inconsistency. Both players will be crucial in providing the offensive firepower needed to upset Castillo’s rhythm.

Situational Factors

The game will be played at T-Mobile Park, where the Mariners have a home record of 27-18. Park factors indicate a slight pitcher-friendly environment, potentially favoring the Mariners, who rely heavily on their pitching strength. The weather forecast for Seattle on July 11 predicts a mild evening with temperatures around 68°F and minimal wind, likely having little impact on gameplay.

In terms of injuries, the Mariners will still miss the presence of JP Crawford, sidelined due to a wrist injury, while the Tigers have recently activated their veteran infielder Jonathan Schoop from the IL, bolstering their infield depth.

Advanced Metrics

For the Mariners, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) figures for Julio Rodríguez (4.8) and Luis Castillo (3.5) underscore their value to the team. Rodríguez’s wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) of 144 shows he is significantly better than the league average in run production. Meanwhile, Castillo’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.20 further validates his ERA, indicating solid underlying performance aside from defensive support.

The Tigers’ Riley Greene boasts a WAR of 3.9, reflecting his all-around contributions, while his wRC+ of 138 indicates excellent run production efficiency. Casey Mize’s FIP of 4.02 suggests he might not be performing as poorly as his ERA might imply, hinting at potential positive regression.

Prediction

Considering the Mariners’ recent form, pitching advantage at home, and historical success against the Tigers, Seattle seems poised to come out on top in this matchup. I predict the Mariners will win with a final score of 5-3. My confidence level in this outcome is around 65%, given the Tigers’ ability to surprise with their young, dynamic offense. However, the Mariners’ balance of pitching and key offensive production should provide enough to secure a crucial victory as they aim to climb the playoff standings.

Player Name	Prop	Prediction	Line	Trends	Last 3 Games	Wind	Team	Odds	Date
Brandon Young	pitcher_earned_runs	Over	2.5	3.25	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Baltimore Orioles	-155	07-08
Brandon Young	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	2.5	3.75	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Baltimore Orioles	-305	07-08
Brandon Young	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	2.75	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Baltimore Orioles	-145	07-08
Brayan Bello	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	2.07	Under Hit 2/3	Bad	Boston Red Sox	-145	07-08
Brayan Bello	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	3.93	Over Hit 1/3	Bad	Boston Red Sox	-385	07-08
Brayan Bello	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	2.36	Over Hit 1/3	Bad	Boston Red Sox	-150	07-08
Chris Bassitt	pitcher_earned_runs	Over	2.5	2.67	Over Hit 2/3	Bad	Toronto Blue Jays	120	07-08
Chris Bassitt	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	5.67	Over Hit 2/3	Bad	Toronto Blue Jays	-360	07-08
Chris Bassitt	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.56	Under Hit 1/3	Bad	Toronto Blue Jays	110	07-08
Clay Holmes	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.82	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	New York Mets	-135	07-08
Clay Holmes	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	4.47	Over Hit 1/3	Neutral	New York Mets	-275	07-08
Clay Holmes	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	2.29	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	New York Mets	-180	07-08
Clayton Kershaw	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.89	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Los Angeles Dodgers	-155	07-08
Clayton Kershaw	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	2.5	3.56	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Los Angeles Dodgers	-480	07-08
Clayton Kershaw	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.56	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Los Angeles Dodgers	-115	07-08
Hunter Brown	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	1.5	1.24	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Houston Astros	-110	07-08
Hunter Brown	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	5.5	7.41	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Houston Astros	-335	07-08
Hunter Brown	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.71	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Houston Astros	135	07-08
Jack Flaherty	pitcher_earned_runs	Over	1.5	2.82	Over Hit 3/3	Good	Detroit Tigers	-170	07-08
Jack Flaherty	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	4.5	6.41	Over Hit 2/3	Good	Detroit Tigers	-295	07-08
Jack Flaherty	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	2.18	Over Hit 3/3	Good	Detroit Tigers	-160	07-08
Jacob Misiorowski	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.75	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Milwaukee Brewers	-185	07-08
Jacob Misiorowski	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	5.25	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Milwaukee Brewers	-400	07-08
Jacob Misiorowski	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	2.5	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Milwaukee Brewers	-170	07-08
Jake Irvin	pitcher_earned_runs	Over	2.5	3.06	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Washington Nationals	-150	07-08
Jake Irvin	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	2.5	4.17	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Washington Nationals	-265	07-08
Jeffrey Springs	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	2.44	Under Hit 3/3	Neutral	Oakland Athletics	115	07-08
Jeffrey Springs	pitcher_strikeouts	Under	4.5	4.39	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Oakland Athletics	-115	07-08
Jeffrey Springs	pitcher_walks	Under	2.5	2.06	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Oakland Athletics	-190	07-08
Joey Cantillo	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	1.5	0.55	Under Hit 3/3	Neutral	Cleveland Guardians	125	07-08
Joey Cantillo	pitcher_strikeouts	Under	3.5	1.86	Under Hit 1/3	Neutral	Cleveland Guardians	188	07-08
Joey Cantillo	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	0.77	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Cleveland Guardians	145	07-08
Jose Soriano	pitcher_earned_runs	Over	2.5	2.39	Over Hit 1/3	Neutral	Los Angeles Angels	100	07-08
Jose Soriano	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	5.06	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Los Angeles Angels	-375	07-08
Jose Soriano	pitcher_walks	Over	2.5	2.61	Over Hit 1/3	Neutral	Los Angeles Angels	125	07-08
Kyle Freeland	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	3.5	3.19	Under Hit 2/3	Bad	Colorado Rockies	-145	07-08
Kyle Freeland	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	3.81	Over Hit 1/3	Bad	Colorado Rockies	-210	07-08
Kyle Freeland	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.25	Under Hit 0/3	Bad	Colorado Rockies	-170	07-08
Logan Gilbert	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.9	Under Hit 1/3	Neutral	Seattle Mariners	-130	07-08
Logan Gilbert	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	5.5	7.4	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Seattle Mariners	-315	07-08
Logan Gilbert	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.1	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Seattle Mariners	-135	07-08
Merrill Kelly	pitcher_earned_runs	Over	2.5	2.28	Over Hit 2/3	Bad	Arizona Diamondbacks	-105	07-08
Merrill Kelly	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	5.72	Over Hit 2/3	Bad	Arizona Diamondbacks	-230	07-08
Merrill Kelly	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	1.61	Over Hit 2/3	Bad	Arizona Diamondbacks	-105	07-08
Mitch Keller	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	2.39	Under Hit 3/3	Neutral	Pittsburgh Pirates	-110	07-08
Mitch Keller	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	2.5	4.67	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Pittsburgh Pirates	-480	07-08
Mitch Keller	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	1.44	Over Hit 1/3	Neutral	Pittsburgh Pirates	145	07-08
Nathan Eovaldi	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	1.5	1.07	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Texas Rangers	130	07-08
Nathan Eovaldi	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	4.5	5.71	Over Hit 1/3	Neutral	Texas Rangers	-360	07-08
Nathan Eovaldi	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	0.93	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Texas Rangers	-160	07-08
Nick Martinez	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	2.47	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Cincinnati Reds	110	07-08
Nick Martinez	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	2.5	3.74	Over Hit 1/3	Neutral	Cincinnati Reds	-455	07-08
Nick Martinez	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.11	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Cincinnati Reds	-200	07-08
Nick Pivetta	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	1.5	2.06	Under Hit 2/3	Bad	San Diego Padres	120	07-08
Nick Pivetta	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	4.5	6.29	Over Hit 2/3	Bad	San Diego Padres	-335	07-08
Nick Pivetta	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.41	Under Hit 2/3	Bad	San Diego Padres	-130	07-08
Robbie Ray	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.78	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	San Francisco Giants	-145	07-08
Robbie Ray	pitcher_strikeouts	Under	6.5	6.5	Under Hit 1/3	Neutral	San Francisco Giants	-120	07-08
Ryan Pepiot	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	2.11	Under Hit 2/3	Good	Tampa Bay Rays	-150	07-08
Ryan Pepiot	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	4.5	5.61	Over Hit 2/3	Good	Tampa Bay Rays	-245	07-08
Ryan Pepiot	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	1.83	Over Hit 3/3	Good	Tampa Bay Rays	-150	07-08
Seth Lugo	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.75	Under Hit 3/3	Neutral	Kansas City Royals	-160	07-08
Seth Lugo	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	4.5	5.19	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Kansas City Royals	-295	07-08
Seth Lugo	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	1.88	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Kansas City Royals	-110	07-08
Shota Imanaga	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.7	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Chicago Cubs	-120	07-08
Shota Imanaga	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	3.5	4.1	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Chicago Cubs	-400	07-08
Shota Imanaga	pitcher_walks	Under	1.5	1.5	Under Hit 3/3	Neutral	Chicago Cubs	-190	07-08
Simeon Woods Richardson	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	2.38	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	Minnesota Twins	100	07-08
Simeon Woods Richardson	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	2.5	4.23	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	Minnesota Twins	-420	07-08
Simeon Woods Richardson	pitcher_walks	Over	1.5	1.85	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	Minnesota Twins	-200	07-08
Sonny Gray	pitcher_earned_runs	Over	1.5	2.29	Over Hit 1/3	Neutral	St. Louis Cardinals	-130	07-08
Sonny Gray	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	4.5	6.29	Over Hit 3/3	Neutral	St. Louis Cardinals	-250	07-08
Taijuan Walker	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	1.16	Under Hit 3/3	Neutral	Philadelphia Phillies	-175	07-08
Taijuan Walker	pitcher_strikeouts	Under	2.5	2.42	Under Hit 3/3	Neutral	Philadelphia Phillies	115	07-08
Will Warren	pitcher_earned_runs	Under	2.5	2.61	Under Hit 2/3	Neutral	New York Yankees	-115	07-08
Will Warren	pitcher_strikeouts	Over	4.5	5.94	Over Hit 2/3	Neutral	New York Yankees	-278	07-08
Will Warren	pitcher_walks	Under	2.5	2.17	Under Hit 1/3	Neutral	New York Yankees	-165	07-08