Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – MLB Preview, Picks & Analysis

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Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction - MLB Preview, Picks & Analysis

Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: A Comprehensive Game Preview

Introduction: A Crucial Matchup in the Summer Race

On July 11, 2025, the Washington Nationals will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers in what promises to be an exciting mid-season matchup. As we move deeper into the summer and closer to the critical stages of the playoff race, both teams find themselves in intriguing positions. The Nationals, currently sitting third in the National League East, are striving to maintain momentum and edge closer to a potential Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Brewers stand second in the National League Central, battling the Chicago Cubs for the division lead. Given the stakes, this game could hold significant implications for both teams’ postseason aspirations.

Recent Performance: Momentum on the Line

Washington Nationals

The Nationals have shown mixed form over their last 10 games, recording a 5-5 record. Recent standout performances include a series win against the Philadelphia Phillies, highlighted by a thrilling 7-6 victory in extra innings. However, they followed that with a tough series loss against divisional rivals, the Atlanta Braves, exhibiting both strengths and weaknesses. Washington has struggled with consistency, often combining explosive offensive displays with shaky pitching performances. Notably, they snapped a three-game losing streak with a convincing 8-2 win, showing signs of regaining their rhythm.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have performed slightly better in their last 10 outings, boasting a 6-4 record. Most recently, they secured a significant series win over the St. Louis Cardinals, underpinned by strong starting pitching and timely hitting. Milwaukee enters this game on the back of a two-game winning streak, which has seen their offense clicking at the right time. With an average of 5.4 runs per game over this stretch, they have certainly shown they can score in bunches when necessary.

Head-to-Head History: A Rivalry Renewed

This season, the Brewers lead the season series against the Nationals, having won three out of five previous encounters. Historically, Milwaukee has had the upper hand, winning eight of the last 12 meetings between these two clubs. However, the Nationals are known for their resilience, often playing competitively against the Brewers, which sets up an enticing storyline for this mid-season clash.

Pitching Matchups: A Clash of Aces

Washington Nationals

The Nationals will send their ace, right-hander Josiah Gray, to the mound. Gray has been a cornerstone for Washington this season, boasting a solid ERA of 3.45 and a WHIP of 1.21, with an impressive strikeout rate of 9.7 K/9. Gray has been particularly effective in his last outing, pitching a gem against the Phillies, with 7 innings of one-run ball and 10 strikeouts. His form and poise on the mound could be pivotal for the Nationals.

Milwaukee Brewers

For Milwaukee, Brandon Woodruff will get the start. Known for his electric fastball and sharp breaking pitches, Woodruff sports a 3.15 ERA and a WHIP of 1.07, with a remarkable 10.3 K/9. Though he struggled slightly in his most recent start against the Cubs, allowing four runs over six innings, Woodruff remains a formidable presence on the mound and is capable of dominating any lineup on his day.

Key Position-Player Matchups: Stars in the Spotlight

Washington Nationals

  1. Juan Soto: The Nationals’ superstar continues to be their offensive linchpin with a .325 average, a 1.050 OPS, 25 home runs, and 65 RBIs. Soto’s plate discipline and power make him a constant threat, especially against a fastball-heavy pitcher like Woodruff.

  2. Keibert Ruiz: The young catcher has developed into a reliable hitter this season, batting .290 with a .780 OPS and 10 home runs. His ability to handle the bat in crucial situations will be crucial for the Nationals against Milwaukee’s pitching.

Milwaukee Brewers

  1. Christian Yelich: The former MVP is having a bounce-back season, hitting .295 with a .940 OPS, 22 home runs, and 68 RBIs. His track record against the Nationals, paired with his recent form, makes him a key player to watch.

  2. Willy Adames: Known for his clutch hitting, Adames brings power to the Brewers’ lineup, with 18 home runs and a .830 OPS. His performance against Gray could be a deciding factor in the game’s outcome.

Situational Factors: The Battlefield

The game will take place at American Family Field, known for being a hitter-friendly venue, especially during the summer months. The weather forecast predicts mild conditions with temperatures around 75°F, which should not significantly impact play. Injuries have been limited for both teams, with each expected to field their strongest available lineup.

Advanced Metrics: Deeper Insights

Washington Nationals

  • wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus): At 105, the Nationals’ offense is slightly above league average, showcasing their ability to produce runs effectively.

  • FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): Gray’s FIP of 3.60 indicates that his success is not a fluke, as it closely aligns with his actual ERA, underscoring his effectiveness.

Milwaukee Brewers

  • wRC+: The Brewers stand at 110, reflecting a well-rounded offense capable of scoring from various parts of the lineup.

  • WAR (Wins Above Replacement): Woodruff’s WAR of 3.5 highlights his significant contribution to the team’s success, emphasizing his value as a top-tier starter.

Prediction: Brewers Have the Edge

Given the current form and head-to-head history, the Milwaukee Brewers seem to have a slight edge over the Nationals. While Washington offers a potent lineup and a formidable pitcher in Gray, Milwaukee’s recent offensive surge and Woodruff’s overall dominance tip the scales in their favor for this matchup. I predict the Brewers will take this game with a final score of 5-3. I’m 65% confident in the Brewers securing this win, largely due to their home-field advantage and Woodruff’s prowess on the mound.

Player NamePropPredictionLineTrendsLast 3 GamesWindTeamOddsDate
Brandon YoungBrandon Young
pitcher_earned_runsOver2.53.25Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles
-15507-08
Brandon YoungBrandon Young
pitcher_strikeoutsOver2.53.75Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles
-30507-08
Brandon YoungBrandon Young
pitcher_walksOver1.52.75Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles
-14507-08
Brayan BelloBrayan Bello
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.52.07Under Hit 2/3Bad
Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox
-14507-08
Brayan BelloBrayan Bello
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.53.93Over Hit 1/3Bad
Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox
-38507-08
Brayan BelloBrayan Bello
pitcher_walksOver1.52.36Over Hit 1/3Bad
Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox
-15007-08
Chris BassittChris Bassitt
pitcher_earned_runsOver2.52.67Over Hit 2/3Bad
Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays
12007-08
Chris BassittChris Bassitt
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.55.67Over Hit 2/3Bad
Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays
-36007-08
Chris BassittChris Bassitt
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.56Under Hit 1/3Bad
Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays
11007-08
Clay HolmesClay Holmes
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.82Under Hit 2/3Neutral
New York MetsNew York Mets
-13507-08
Clay HolmesClay Holmes
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.54.47Over Hit 1/3Neutral
New York MetsNew York Mets
-27507-08
Clay HolmesClay Holmes
pitcher_walksOver1.52.29Over Hit 3/3Neutral
New York MetsNew York Mets
-18007-08
Clayton KershawClayton Kershaw
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.89Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers
-15507-08
Clayton KershawClayton Kershaw
pitcher_strikeoutsOver2.53.56Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers
-48007-08
Clayton KershawClayton Kershaw
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.56Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers
-11507-08
Hunter BrownHunter Brown
pitcher_earned_runsUnder1.51.24Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Houston AstrosHouston Astros
-11007-08
Hunter BrownHunter Brown
pitcher_strikeoutsOver5.57.41Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Houston AstrosHouston Astros
-33507-08
Hunter BrownHunter Brown
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.71Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Houston AstrosHouston Astros
13507-08
Jack FlahertyJack Flaherty
pitcher_earned_runsOver1.52.82Over Hit 3/3Good
Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers
-17007-08
Jack FlahertyJack Flaherty
pitcher_strikeoutsOver4.56.41Over Hit 2/3Good
Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers
-29507-08
Jack FlahertyJack Flaherty
pitcher_walksOver1.52.18Over Hit 3/3Good
Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers
-16007-08
Jacob MisiorowskiJacob Misiorowski
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.75Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers
-18507-08
Jacob MisiorowskiJacob Misiorowski
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.55.25Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers
-40007-08
Jacob MisiorowskiJacob Misiorowski
pitcher_walksOver1.52.5Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers
-17007-08
Jake IrvinJake Irvin
pitcher_earned_runsOver2.53.06Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Washington NationalsWashington Nationals
-15007-08
Jake IrvinJake Irvin
pitcher_strikeoutsOver2.54.17Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Washington NationalsWashington Nationals
-26507-08
Jeffrey SpringsJeffrey Springs
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.52.44Under Hit 3/3Neutral
Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics
11507-08
Jeffrey SpringsJeffrey Springs
pitcher_strikeoutsUnder4.54.39Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics
-11507-08
Jeffrey SpringsJeffrey Springs
pitcher_walksUnder2.52.06Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics
-19007-08
Joey CantilloJoey Cantillo
pitcher_earned_runsUnder1.50.55Under Hit 3/3Neutral
Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians
12507-08
Joey CantilloJoey Cantillo
pitcher_strikeoutsUnder3.51.86Under Hit 1/3Neutral
Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians
18807-08
Joey CantilloJoey Cantillo
pitcher_walksUnder1.50.77Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians
14507-08
Jose SorianoJose Soriano
pitcher_earned_runsOver2.52.39Over Hit 1/3Neutral
Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels
10007-08
Jose SorianoJose Soriano
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.55.06Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels
-37507-08
Jose SorianoJose Soriano
pitcher_walksOver2.52.61Over Hit 1/3Neutral
Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels
12507-08
Kyle FreelandKyle Freeland
pitcher_earned_runsUnder3.53.19Under Hit 2/3Bad
Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies
-14507-08
Kyle FreelandKyle Freeland
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.53.81Over Hit 1/3Bad
Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies
-21007-08
Kyle FreelandKyle Freeland
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.25Under Hit 0/3Bad
Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies
-17007-08
Logan GilbertLogan Gilbert
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.9Under Hit 1/3Neutral
Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners
-13007-08
Logan GilbertLogan Gilbert
pitcher_strikeoutsOver5.57.4Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners
-31507-08
Logan GilbertLogan Gilbert
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.1Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners
-13507-08
Merrill KellyMerrill Kelly
pitcher_earned_runsOver2.52.28Over Hit 2/3Bad
Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks
-10507-08
Merrill KellyMerrill Kelly
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.55.72Over Hit 2/3Bad
Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks
-23007-08
Merrill KellyMerrill Kelly
pitcher_walksOver1.51.61Over Hit 2/3Bad
Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks
-10507-08
Mitch KellerMitch Keller
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.52.39Under Hit 3/3Neutral
Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates
-11007-08
Mitch KellerMitch Keller
pitcher_strikeoutsOver2.54.67Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates
-48007-08
Mitch KellerMitch Keller
pitcher_walksOver1.51.44Over Hit 1/3Neutral
Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates
14507-08
Nathan EovaldiNathan Eovaldi
pitcher_earned_runsUnder1.51.07Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Texas RangersTexas Rangers
13007-08
Nathan EovaldiNathan Eovaldi
pitcher_strikeoutsOver4.55.71Over Hit 1/3Neutral
Texas RangersTexas Rangers
-36007-08
Nathan EovaldiNathan Eovaldi
pitcher_walksUnder1.50.93Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Texas RangersTexas Rangers
-16007-08
Nick MartinezNick Martinez
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.52.47Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds
11007-08
Nick MartinezNick Martinez
pitcher_strikeoutsOver2.53.74Over Hit 1/3Neutral
Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds
-45507-08
Nick MartinezNick Martinez
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.11Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds
-20007-08
Nick PivettaNick Pivetta
pitcher_earned_runsUnder1.52.06Under Hit 2/3Bad
San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres
12007-08
Nick PivettaNick Pivetta
pitcher_strikeoutsOver4.56.29Over Hit 2/3Bad
San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres
-33507-08
Nick PivettaNick Pivetta
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.41Under Hit 2/3Bad
San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres
-13007-08
Robbie RayRobbie Ray
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.78Under Hit 2/3Neutral
San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants
-14507-08
Robbie RayRobbie Ray
pitcher_strikeoutsUnder6.56.5Under Hit 1/3Neutral
San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants
-12007-08
Ryan PepiotRyan Pepiot
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.52.11Under Hit 2/3Good
Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays
-15007-08
Ryan PepiotRyan Pepiot
pitcher_strikeoutsOver4.55.61Over Hit 2/3Good
Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays
-24507-08
Ryan PepiotRyan Pepiot
pitcher_walksOver1.51.83Over Hit 3/3Good
Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays
-15007-08
Seth LugoSeth Lugo
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.75Under Hit 3/3Neutral
Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals
-16007-08
Seth LugoSeth Lugo
pitcher_strikeoutsOver4.55.19Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals
-29507-08
Seth LugoSeth Lugo
pitcher_walksOver1.51.88Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals
-11007-08
Shota ImanagaShota Imanaga
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.7Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Chicago CubsChicago Cubs
-12007-08
Shota ImanagaShota Imanaga
pitcher_strikeoutsOver3.54.1Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Chicago CubsChicago Cubs
-40007-08
Shota ImanagaShota Imanaga
pitcher_walksUnder1.51.5Under Hit 3/3Neutral
Chicago CubsChicago Cubs
-19007-08
Simeon Woods RichardsonSimeon Woods Richardson
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.52.38Under Hit 2/3Neutral
Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins
10007-08
Simeon Woods RichardsonSimeon Woods Richardson
pitcher_strikeoutsOver2.54.23Over Hit 3/3Neutral
Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins
-42007-08
Simeon Woods RichardsonSimeon Woods Richardson
pitcher_walksOver1.51.85Over Hit 2/3Neutral
Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins
-20007-08
Sonny GraySonny Gray
pitcher_earned_runsOver1.52.29Over Hit 1/3Neutral
St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals
-13007-08
Sonny GraySonny Gray
pitcher_strikeoutsOver4.56.29Over Hit 3/3Neutral
St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals
-25007-08
Taijuan WalkerTaijuan Walker
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.51.16Under Hit 3/3Neutral
Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies
-17507-08
Taijuan WalkerTaijuan Walker
pitcher_strikeoutsUnder2.52.42Under Hit 3/3Neutral
Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies
11507-08
Will WarrenWill Warren
pitcher_earned_runsUnder2.52.61Under Hit 2/3Neutral
New York YankeesNew York Yankees
-11507-08
Will WarrenWill Warren
pitcher_strikeoutsOver4.55.94Over Hit 2/3Neutral
New York YankeesNew York Yankees
-27807-08
Will WarrenWill Warren
pitcher_walksUnder2.52.17Under Hit 1/3Neutral
New York YankeesNew York Yankees
-16507-08

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