Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: A Comprehensive Preview for August 4, 2025

As we approach the dog days of August in the Major League Baseball season, the stakes are high for both the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs in their matchup on August 4, 2025. The game, to be held at the iconic Wrigley Field in Chicago, has significant playoff implications. Both teams find themselves in the thick of the National League Central playoff race, with the Reds currently sitting in third place, just two games behind the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers, while the Cubs are in fourth, four games back. As the season winds down, each game becomes crucial for solidifying a playoff berth.

Recent Performance

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds enter this matchup with a mixed bag of recent performances over their last ten games. Sporting a 5-5 record, they’ve shown resilience by bouncing back from a recent three-game losing streak with a convincing series win against the San Francisco Giants. Key moments include their thrilling walk-off win last Sunday, where rookie sensation Eli De La Cruz blasted a three-run homer to clinch the game. However, inconsistency remains a concern, particularly with their bullpen, which blew two save opportunities in their last series.

Chicago Cubs

On the flip side, the Cubs have been riding a wave of momentum with a 7-3 record in their last ten outings. They are coming off a successful road trip where they swept the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates but split a four-game series with the New York Mets. A noteworthy performance was the offensive explosion in the first game against the Mets, where they scored 12 runs. However, their starting pitching depth was tested, as two of their starters failed to make it past the fifth inning in recent starts.

Head-to-Head History

This season, the Reds and Cubs have faced off ten times, with the Cubs holding a slight edge at 6-4. Historically, the Cubs have dominated the matchup, winning seven of the last ten series dating back to 2023. However, the Reds have shown tenacity, often pushing games to the brink with late-inning heroics.

Pitching Matchups

Cincinnati Reds – Starting Pitcher: Hunter Greene

Hunter Greene takes the mound for the Reds, carrying a season ERA of 3.45 and a WHIP of 1.10. Greene has been a strikeout machine, averaging 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings, a testament to his overpowering fastball and sharp slider. In his last outing against the Phillies, he allowed just one run over seven innings while fanning eight batters, showcasing his capability to be a game-changer on any given day.

Chicago Cubs – Starting Pitcher: Justin Steele

For the Cubs, left-hander Justin Steele will start, boasting an impressive ERA of 2.98 and a WHIP of 1.05. His ability to stifle opponents with his excellent command and mix of pitches has been crucial for the Cubs. Steele’s recent form has been stellar, as he recorded a dominant performance against the Cardinals, allowing only two hits over six shutout innings.

Key Position-Player Matchups

Cincinnati Reds

• Eli De La Cruz: Batting .298 with an OPS of .910, De La Cruz has emerged as a pivotal force for the Reds. His 25 home runs and 75 RBIs make him a constant threat, especially against left-handers like Steele, against whom he has shown a preference, hitting .315 this season.

• Jonathan India: With a .275 average and an OPS of .820, India remains an on-base machine for the Reds. His knack for getting on base (.370 OBP) sets the table for the power hitters behind him.

Chicago Cubs

• Dansby Swanson: Swanson continues to be the heartbeat of the Cubs’ lineup, batting .305 with an OPS of .895. His 27 home runs and 80 RBIs highlight his dual-threat capability of providing power and average. Swanson has a favorable matchup against Greene, as he’s hit .333 against the right-hander in their last five matchups.

• Cody Bellinger: The former MVP has found his groove in Chicago, posting a .280 batting average with an OPS of .875. Known for his clutch hitting, Bellinger can shift the game’s momentum with one swing, particularly in late-inning situations.

Situational Factors

The game will be played at Wrigley Field, a venue known for its unpredictable wind patterns which can transform a routine fly ball into a home run. The forecast predicts mild winds from the northwest at 10 mph, potentially aiding hitters like De La Cruz and Bellinger. The temperature is set to be a comfortable 75°F, perfect for an evening of baseball.

Injury-wise, the Reds will miss the services of veteran reliever Lucas Sims, currently on the 15-day IL with a strained forearm, while the Cubs are without Marquez, recovering from a hamstring strain.

Advanced Metrics

For the Reds, a key sabermetric to watch is Greene’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which stands at 3.12, indicating his ERA might slightly underrepresent his true pitching effectiveness. Furthermore, Eli De La Cruz’s Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 145 underscores his offensive value, where 100 is league average.

On the Cubs’ side, Justin Steele’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 3.8 makes him the most valuable pitcher in their rotation, reflecting his all-around contribution to the team’s success. Dansby Swanson’s defensive prowess is highlighted by his Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) of 12, showcasing his elite fielding skills.

Prediction

The upcoming game is poised to be a tightly contested affair between two teams hungry for a postseason spot. Given the current form of their starting pitcher, Justin Steele, and their recent offensive resurgence, I predict the Chicago Cubs will edge out the Cincinnati Reds in a close contest, with a projected final score of 5-3. While both teams possess the firepower to turn the tide, Steele’s consistency and the Cubs’ improved lineup offer them a slight advantage. My confidence level in a Cubs victory stands at 65%.

As both teams vie for a crucial victory, fans can expect an electrifying game under the lights of Wrigley Field, filled with potentially game-changing moments.

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