Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs Game Preview and Prediction

Introduction to the Matchup

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the Chicago Cubs on August 16, 2025, at Wrigley Field, the stakes are immensely high for both teams. The Cubs are neck and neck with the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central Division, with the postseason rapidly approaching. On the other hand, the Pirates, who sit a few games back, are attempting to keep their playoff dreams alive by securing a wildcard spot. Despite the Cubs’ historical dominance in recent years, a resilient Pirates squad is eager to shake things up in this pivotal late-season showdown.

Recent Performance Analysis

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have shown signs of life over their last ten games, posting a 6-4 record. Their offense has been revitalized by the return of power-hitting first baseman Matt Miller, who was sidelined due to a hamstring injury. Pittsburgh’s recent series win against the NL East-leading Phillies was particularly impressive, demonstrating their ability to compete with top-tier teams. Their bullpen, however, has been an Achilles heel, with several late-game collapses contributing to their mixed results.

Key moments from their recent stretch include a walk-off homer by Miller against the Phillies and a standout performance from rookie pitcher Jaxon Morgan, who recorded his first major league win with a seven-inning, one-hit performance against the Reds.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have been a model of consistency, going 7-3 over their last ten games. They’ve surged past divisional rivals thanks to a potent combination of offense and pitching depth. Their recent sweep of the underperforming Rockies showcased their ability to capitalize on weaker opponents, while a series win against the Dodgers underscored their strength against playoff-caliber teams.

A notable highlight was All-Star shortstop Javier Baez hitting for the cycle in the final game against the Rockies, boosting his team’s morale and securing a crucial series win.

Head-to-Head History

The season series between the Cubs and the Pirates has been a tightly contested affair, with the Cubs holding a narrow 6-5 advantage. Historically, Chicago has had the upper hand, winning 7 of the last 10 meetings dating back to 2024. However, several of those games were decided by two runs or fewer, indicating that the Pirates are not far off from tipping the scales in their favor.

Pitching Matchups

Probable Starters

• Pittsburgh Pirates: Jaxon Morgan
• Season Stats: 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.1 K/9

• Morgan, the up-and-coming star, is fresh off his best sequence of starts this season, showcasing newfound command and an increased reliance on his breaking ball. Despite his recent success, he faces a formidable challenge against a seasoned Cubs lineup.

• Chicago Cubs: Kyle Hendricks

• Season Stats: 3.60 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.0 K/9
• Known for his pinpoint control and ability to induce groundballs, Hendricks is the dependable veteran presence in the Cubs’ rotation. In his last outing, he held the Cardinals to just one run over seven innings, continuing to demonstrate why he’s an anchor for the Cubs.

Key Position-Player Matchups

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Matt Miller
• Stats: .280 AVG, .850 OPS, 22 HR, 67 RBIs

• Miller’s return has been a catalyst for the Pirates. His ability to drive the ball into the gaps makes him a constant threat against Hendricks, whose pitch-to-contact style could play into Miller’s strengths.

• Bryan Reynolds

• Stats: .295 AVG, .880 OPS, 18 HR, 62 RBIs
• Reynolds has been the Pirates’ most consistent offensive player this season, with a keen eye and the ability to adjust to various pitching styles. His matchup against Hendricks will be crucial, particularly in high-leverage situations.

Chicago Cubs

• Javier Baez
• Stats: .270 AVG, .900 OPS, 25 HR, 80 RBIs

• Baez’s recent cycle exemplifies his hot streak. Known for his aggressive approach, his matchup against Morgan will be a highlight, especially if Morgan can effectively deploy his breaking pitches.

• Cody Bellinger

• Stats: .265 AVG, .830 OPS, 20 HR, 70 RBIs
• Bellinger’s left-handed power presents a significant challenge for Morgan. His propensity to go deep in critical moments will be a factor as the Cubs look to maintain their division lead.

Situational Factors

Playing at Wrigley Field assumes a different narrative depending on the weather, and with an expected temperature of 75°F and a moderate wind blowing out to left field, hitters may find favorable conditions for power. The Pirates will be without key reliever David Bednar, who is on the 10-day IL, which could prove pivotal if the game hinges on late-inning bullpen strength.

Advanced Metrics Analysis

• Pittsburgh Pirates: Their team wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) stands at 105, indicating a slightly above-average offensive production compared to league average. Their team FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 4.25, suggesting that their pitching staff’s performance might not be as solid as traditional stats show, emphasizing the bullpen concerns.

• Chicago Cubs: With a team wRC+ of 110, the Cubs have been more prolific offensively, showcasing better overall discipline and power. Their FIP is a respectable 3.95, reflecting a robust pitching staff capable of maintaining leads.

Prediction and Conclusion

Projecting the outcome of this game, the Cubs appear to have the upper hand, given their current form, home-field advantage, and superior bullpen stability. I predict a final score of Cubs 5, Pirates 3. However, expect a competitive game where Pittsburgh can level the field if their bullpen can hold strong and their key hitters execute against Hendricks. I’m 70% confident the Cubs will secure the victory, leveraging their consistency and depth to maintain their push for the division crown.

Today MLB Pitcher Prop Bets Generator