Arouca vs Nacional prediction
Arouca vs Nacional prediction in the Primeira Liga: 5 markets modelled on this match, with the price and the book on the 3 we publish a price for. The trust on each market, and the one we back, are for members.
Best Pick for this Matchup
one pick per matchModel prediction
Our pick on this match, and the reasons behind it
One pick a day stays open. The rest is for members.
Start free trialOutcome 1X2
3 selections ·| Selection | Trust | Odds | Book | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca to win | -119 (1.84) | Pinnacle | ||
| Draw | +272 (3.72) | Pinnacle | ||
| Nacional to win | +317 (4.17) | Pinnacle |
Total goals over/under
2 selections ·| Selection | Trust | Odds | Book | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | -119 (1.84) | Pinnacle | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | +100 (2.00) | Pinnacle |
Every selection above carries the book's own price. We back only one of them, and that one is in the panel at the top.
Arouca and Nacional form and standing
last 5 · table 2026/27| Club | Last 5 | Played | Pos | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | DLDWW→ | 9 | 5 | 17 | 1.89 |
| Nacional | LLLLW→ | 9 | 15 | 7 | 0.78 |
The full table is on the Primeira Liga page, and every match either club has played is on its own page.
Arouca vs Nacional, side by side
form last 5 · goals last 10 · rates last 20Arouca last 5
2W 2D 1L
Nacional last 5
1W 0D 4L
Arouca points per game
1.9
Nacional points per game
0.8
Arouca scored
1.5
Nacional scored
1.2
Arouca conceded
0.8
Nacional conceded
1.8
Arouca goals in game
2.3
Nacional goals in game
3.0
Arouca opponents per game
1.3
Nacional opponents per game
1.5
Arouca over 2.5
55%
Nacional over 2.5
35%
Arouca both scored
50%
Nacional both scored
35%
Arouca first half goals
1.2
Nacional first half goals
1.8
Arouca second half goals
1.2
Nacional second half goals
1.4
Arouca vs Nacional head to head
6 meetingsMeetings
6
Goals per meeting
2.3
Over 2.5
3 of 6
Both scored
3 of 6
| Date | Match | Score | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Arouca v Nacional | 3–0 | 3 |
| 2025-09-20 | Nacional v Arouca | 1–2 | 3 |
| 2025-02-01 | Nacional v Arouca | 1–2 | 3 |
| 2024-08-25 | Arouca v Nacional | 1–0 | 1 |
| 2017-01-28 | Nacional v Arouca | 1–1 | 2 |
| 2016-08-21 | Arouca v Nacional | 2–0 | 2 |
Arouca picks we published
newest first| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct | Alverca vs Arouca | Over 2.5 | 1.85 | 0:1 | LOSS |
Nacional picks we published
newest first| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct | Nacional vs Sp Braga | Sp Braga to win | 1.51 | 1:0 | LOSS |
Why
01Arouca is inconsistent: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 5. Scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 per game.
02Nacional is in poor form: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 losses in the last 5. Scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.4 per game.
03Last 6 meetings: Arouca 5, 1 draw, Nacional 0. Nacional have not won any of them.
HOW WE PRICE THISTrust is built from the market price of one book with that book's margin stripped out. The margin on this match is 5.21%. The price and the trust come from the same book, so the odds you see are odds you can actually take. What we show is the cleanest trust that exists for this match, plus the context around it.