Derby vs Bolton prediction
Derby vs Bolton prediction in the Championship: 5 markets modelled on this match, with the price and the book on the 3 we publish a price for. The trust on each market, and the one we back, are for members.
Best Pick for this Matchup
one pick per matchModel prediction
Our pick on this match, and the reasons behind it
One pick a day stays open. The rest is for members.
Start free trialOutcome 1X2
3 selections ·| Selection | Trust | Odds | Book | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby to win | +120 (2.20) | market average | ||
| Draw | +250 (3.50) | market average | ||
| Bolton to win | +197 (2.97) | market average |
Total goals over/under
2 selections ·| Selection | Trust | Odds | Book | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | -139 (1.72) | market average | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | +105 (2.05) | market average |
Every selection above carries the book's own price. We back only one of them, and that one is in the panel at the top.
Derby and Bolton form and standing
last 5 · table 2026/27| Club | Last 5 | Played | Pos | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | DLLDL→ | 13 | 23 | 7 | 0.54 |
| Bolton | LWDLL→ | 13 | 19 | 14 | 1.08 |
The full table is on the Championship page, and every match either club has played is on its own page.
Derby vs Bolton, side by side
form last 5 · goals last 10 · rates last 20Derby last 5
0W 2D 3L
Bolton last 5
1W 1D 3L
Derby points per game
0.5
Bolton points per game
1.1
Derby scored
0.8
Bolton scored
1.6
Derby conceded
1.8
Bolton conceded
2.4
Derby goals in game
2.6
Bolton goals in game
4.0
Derby opponents per game
1.4
Bolton opponents per game
1.6
Derby over 2.5
60%
Bolton over 2.5
70%
Derby both scored
65%
Bolton both scored
70%
Derby first half goals
1.2
Bolton first half goals
1.9
Derby second half goals
1.1
Bolton second half goals
2.0
Derby vs Bolton head to head
4 meetingsMeetings
4
Goals per meeting
1.8
Over 2.5
2 of 4
Both scored
2 of 4
| Date | Match | Score | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-16 | Derby v Bolton | 1–0 | 1 |
| 2023-09-02 | Bolton v Derby | 2–1 | 3 |
| 2023-01-21 | Derby v Bolton | 2–1 | 3 |
| 2022-12-27 | Bolton v Derby | 0–0 | 0 |
Derby picks we published
newest first| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | Millwall vs Derby | Millwall to win | 1.62 | 4:1 | WIN |
| 24 Oct | Sheffield United vs Derby | Sheffield United to win | 1.76 | 1:1 | LOSS |
Bolton picks we published
newest first| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | Bolton vs Bristol City | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 2:3 | WIN |
| 23 Oct | Bolton vs Middlesbrough | Over 2.5 | 1.50 | 1:5 | WIN |
Why
01Derby is in a slump: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 5. Scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.2 per game.
02Bolton is in poor form: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in the last 5. Scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.2 per game.
03Last 4 meetings: Derby 2, 1 draw, Bolton 1.
HOW WE PRICE THISTrust is built from the market price of one book with that book's margin stripped out. The margin on this match is 7.70%. The price and the trust come from the same book, so the odds you see are odds you can actually take. What we show is the cleanest trust that exists for this match, plus the context around it.