Marseille vs Toulouse prediction
Marseille vs Toulouse prediction in the Ligue 1: 5 markets modelled on this match, with the price and the book on the 3 we publish a price for. The trust on each market, and the one we back, are for members.
Best Pick for this Matchup
one pick per matchModel prediction
Our pick on this match, and the reasons behind it
One pick a day stays open. The rest is for members.
Start free trialOutcome 1X2
3 selections ·| Selection | Trust | Odds | Book | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille to win | -120 (1.83) | Pinnacle | ||
| Draw | +298 (3.98) | Pinnacle | ||
| Toulouse to win | +291 (3.91) | Pinnacle |
Total goals over/under
2 selections ·| Selection | Trust | Odds | Book | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3 goals | -105 (1.95) | Pinnacle | ||
| Under 3 goals | -114 (1.88) | Pinnacle |
Every selection above carries the book's own price. We back only one of them, and that one is in the panel at the top.
Marseille and Toulouse form and standing
last 5 · table 2026/27| Club | Last 5 | Played | Pos | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | LLLWW→ | 7 | 9 | 9 | 1.29 |
| Toulouse | LDWDW→ | 7 | 11 | 9 | 1.29 |
The full table is on the Ligue 1 page, and every match either club has played is on its own page.
Marseille vs Toulouse, side by side
form last 5 · goals last 10 · rates last 20Marseille last 5
2W 0D 3L
Toulouse last 5
2W 2D 1L
Marseille points per game
1.3
Toulouse points per game
1.3
Marseille scored
1.8
Toulouse scored
1.6
Marseille conceded
1.4
Toulouse conceded
1.3
Marseille goals in game
3.2
Toulouse goals in game
2.9
Marseille opponents per game
1.6
Toulouse opponents per game
1.5
Marseille over 2.5
55%
Toulouse over 2.5
65%
Marseille both scored
50%
Toulouse both scored
60%
Marseille first half goals
0.9
Toulouse first half goals
0.9
Marseille second half goals
2.3
Toulouse second half goals
2.0
Marseille vs Toulouse head to head
8 meetingsMeetings
8
Goals per meeting
3.8
Over 2.5
6 of 8
Both scored
6 of 8
| Date | Match | Score | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Toulouse v Marseille | 0–1 | 1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Marseille v Toulouse | 2–2 | 4 |
| 2025-04-06 | Marseille v Toulouse | 3–2 | 5 |
| 2024-08-31 | Toulouse v Marseille | 1–3 | 4 |
| 2024-04-21 | Toulouse v Marseille | 2–2 | 4 |
| 2023-09-17 | Marseille v Toulouse | 0–0 | 0 |
| 2023-02-19 | Toulouse v Marseille | 2–3 | 5 |
| 2022-12-29 | Marseille v Toulouse | 6–1 | 7 |
Marseille picks we published
No graded pick on a Marseille match yet. Each pick we publish shows here once the match is played.
Toulouse picks we published
No graded pick on a Toulouse match yet. Each pick we publish shows here once the match is played.
Why
01Marseille is inconsistent: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in the last 5. Scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.6 per game.
02Toulouse is inconsistent: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 5. Scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.4 per game. Unbeaten in 4.
03Last 8 meetings: Marseille 5, 3 draws, Toulouse 0. Toulouse have not won any of them.
04Marseille generate 2.35 expected goals and concede 0.19 per game. They are scoring 0.55 fewer than expected, so they create chances but do not convert them.
HOW WE PRICE THISTrust is built from the market price of one book with that book's margin stripped out. The margin on this match is 5.35%. The price and the trust come from the same book, so the odds you see are odds you can actually take. What we show is the cleanest trust that exists for this match, plus the context around it.