Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction
Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction in the Premier League: 5 markets modelled on this match, with the price and the book on the 3 we publish a price for. The trust on each market, and the one we back, are for members.
Best Pick for this Matchup
one pick per matchModel prediction
Our pick on this match, and the reasons behind it
One pick a day stays open. The rest is for members.
Get membershipOutcome 1X2
3 selections ·| Selection | Trust | Odds | Book | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle to win | +461 (5.61) | Pinnacle | ||
| Draw | +326 (4.26) | Pinnacle | ||
| Arsenal to win | -167 (1.60) | Pinnacle |
Total goals over/under
2 selections ·| Selection | Trust | Odds | Book | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.75 goals | -110 (1.91) | Pinnacle | ||
| Under 2.75 goals | -104 (1.96) | Pinnacle |
Every selection above carries the book's own price. We back only one of them, and that one is in the panel at the top.
Newcastle and Arsenal form and standing
last 5 · table 2026/27| Club | Last 5 | Played | Pos | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | LLWLD→ | 10 | 12 | 12 | 1.2 |
| Arsenal | WWWWW→ | 10 | 1 | 27 | 2.7 |
The full table is on the Premier League page, and every match either club has played is on its own page.
Newcastle vs Arsenal, side by side
form last 5 · goals last 10 · rates last 20Newcastle last 5
1W 1D 3L
Arsenal last 5
5W 0D 0L
Newcastle points per game
1.2
Arsenal points per game
2.7
Newcastle scored
1.3
Arsenal scored
1.5
Newcastle conceded
1.6
Arsenal conceded
0.5
Newcastle goals in game
2.9
Arsenal goals in game
2.0
Newcastle opponents per game
1.2
Arsenal opponents per game
1.4
Newcastle over 2.5
55%
Arsenal over 2.5
45%
Newcastle both scored
65%
Arsenal both scored
30%
Newcastle first half goals
1.1
Arsenal first half goals
0.8
Newcastle second half goals
1.8
Arsenal second half goals
1.2
Newcastle vs Arsenal head to head
8 meetingsMeetings
8
Goals per meeting
1.8
Over 2.5
2 of 8
Both scored
2 of 8
| Date | Match | Score | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Arsenal v Newcastle | 1–0 | 1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Newcastle v Arsenal | 1–2 | 3 |
| 2025-05-18 | Arsenal v Newcastle | 1–0 | 1 |
| 2024-11-02 | Newcastle v Arsenal | 1–0 | 1 |
| 2024-02-24 | Arsenal v Newcastle | 4–1 | 5 |
| 2023-11-04 | Newcastle v Arsenal | 1–0 | 1 |
| 2023-05-07 | Newcastle v Arsenal | 0–2 | 2 |
| 2023-01-03 | Arsenal v Newcastle | 0–0 | 0 |
Newcastle picks we published
newest first| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | Fulham vs Newcastle | Over 2.5 | 1.67 | 1:1 | LOSS |
| 2 Nov | Newcastle vs Everton | Over 2.5 | 1.67 | 0:1 | LOSS |
| 25 Oct | Crystal Palace vs Newcastle | Over 2.5 | 1.57 | 0:2 | LOSS |
Arsenal picks we published
newest first| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | Arsenal vs Hull | Over 2.5 | 1.53 | 1:0 | LOSS |
| 1 Nov | Liverpool vs Arsenal | Over 2.5 | 1.88 | 0:1 | LOSS |
| 24 Oct | Arsenal vs Everton | Arsenal to win | 1.40 | 2:0 | WIN |
Why
01Newcastle is in poor form: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in the last 5. Scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.4 per game.
02Arsenal is in excellent form: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in the last 5. Scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.2 per game. Unbeaten in 5.
03Last 8 meetings: Newcastle 2, 1 draw, Arsenal 5.
04Arsenal generate 1.85 expected goals and concede 0.56 per game. They are scoring 0.35 fewer than expected, so they create chances but do not convert them.
HOW WE PRICE THISTrust is built from the market price of one book with that book's margin stripped out. The margin on this match is 3.80%. The price and the trust come from the same book, so the odds you see are odds you can actually take. What we show is the cleanest trust that exists for this match, plus the context around it.