Real Madrid vs Alaves prediction
Real Madrid vs Alaves prediction in the La Liga: 5 markets modelled on this match, with the price and the book on the 2 we publish a price for. The trust on each market, and the one we back, are for members.
Best Pick for this Matchup
one pick per matchModel prediction
Our pick on this match, and the reasons behind it
One pick a day stays open. The rest is for members.
Get membershipOutcome 1X2
3 selections ·| Selection | Trust | Odds | Book | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to win | -667 (1.15) | Pinnacle | ||
| Draw | +789 (8.89) | Pinnacle | ||
| Alaves to win | +1334 (14.34) | Pinnacle |
Total goals over/under
2 selections ·| Selection | Trust | Odds | Book | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | -116 (1.86) | Pinnacle | ||
| Under 3.5 goals | -104 (1.96) | Pinnacle |
Every selection above carries the book's own price. We back only one of them, and that one is in the panel at the top.
Real Madrid and Alaves form and standing
last 5 · table 2026/27| Club | Last 5 | Played | Pos | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | WWWWW→ | 12 | 2 | 30 | 2.5 |
| Alaves | LLDLD→ | 12 | 12 | 13 | 1.08 |
The full table is on the La Liga page, and every match either club has played is on its own page.
Real Madrid vs Alaves, side by side
form last 5 · goals last 10 · rates last 20Real Madrid last 5
5W 0D 0L
Alaves last 5
0W 2D 3L
Real Madrid points per game
2.5
Alaves points per game
1.1
Real Madrid scored
2.5
Alaves scored
1.1
Real Madrid conceded
0.8
Alaves conceded
1.6
Real Madrid goals in game
3.3
Alaves goals in game
2.7
Real Madrid opponents per game
1.7
Alaves opponents per game
1.6
Real Madrid over 2.5
60%
Alaves over 2.5
55%
Real Madrid both scored
55%
Alaves both scored
65%
Real Madrid first half goals
1.6
Alaves first half goals
1.2
Real Madrid second half goals
1.7
Alaves second half goals
1.5
Real Madrid vs Alaves head to head
8 meetingsMeetings
8
Goals per meeting
3.3
Over 2.5
6 of 8
Both scored
4 of 8
| Date | Match | Score | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Real Madrid v Alaves | 2–1 | 3 |
| 2025-12-14 | Alaves v Real Madrid | 1–2 | 3 |
| 2025-04-13 | Alaves v Real Madrid | 0–1 | 1 |
| 2024-09-24 | Real Madrid v Alaves | 3–2 | 5 |
| 2024-05-14 | Real Madrid v Alaves | 5–0 | 5 |
| 2023-12-21 | Alaves v Real Madrid | 0–1 | 1 |
| 2022-02-19 | Real Madrid v Alaves | 3–0 | 3 |
| 2021-08-14 | Alaves v Real Madrid | 1–4 | 5 |
Real Madrid picks we published
newest first| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | Valencia vs Real Madrid | Over 2.5 | 1.44 | 0:3 | WIN |
| 25 Oct | Barcelona vs Real Madrid | Barcelona to win | 1.62 | 1:2 | LOSS |
Alaves picks we published
newest first| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov | Sevilla vs Alaves | Under 2.5 | 1.62 | 0:0 | WIN |
| 23 Oct | Alaves vs Malaga | Alaves to win | 1.60 | 1:1 | LOSS |
Why
01Real Madrid is in excellent form: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in the last 5. Scoring 2.6 and conceding 0.4 per game. Unbeaten in 5.
02Alaves is in a slump: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 5. Scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.2 per game.
03Last 8 meetings: Real Madrid 8, 0 draws, Alaves 0. Alaves have not won any of them.
04Alaves generate 2.29 expected goals and concede 0.26 per game. They are scoring 1.19 fewer than expected, so they create chances but do not convert them.
HOW WE PRICE THISTrust is built from the market price of one book with that book's margin stripped out. The margin on this match is 5.18%. The price and the trust come from the same book, so the odds you see are odds you can actually take. What we show is the cleanest trust that exists for this match, plus the context around it.