Southampton vs Derby prediction
Southampton vs Derby prediction in the Championship: 5 markets modelled on this match, with the price and the book on the 2 we publish a price for. The trust on each market, and the one we back, are for members.
Best Pick for this Matchup
one pick per matchModel prediction
Our pick on this match, and the reasons behind it
One pick a day stays open. The rest is for members.
Get membershipOutcome 1X2
3 selections ·| Selection | Trust | Odds | Book | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton to win | -256 (1.39) | Pinnacle | ||
| Draw | +410 (5.10) | Pinnacle | ||
| Derby to win | +610 (7.10) | Pinnacle |
Total goals over/under
2 selections ·| Selection | Trust | Odds | Book | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3 goals | -114 (1.88) | Pinnacle | ||
| Under 3 goals | -104 (1.96) | Pinnacle |
Every selection above carries the book's own price. We back only one of them, and that one is in the panel at the top.
Southampton and Derby form and standing
last 5 · table 2026/27| Club | Last 5 | Played | Pos | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | DWWDL→ | 15 | 4 | 28 | 1.87 |
| Derby | LDLLW→ | 15 | 23 | 10 | 0.67 |
The full table is on the Championship page, and every match either club has played is on its own page.
Southampton vs Derby, side by side
form last 5 · goals last 10 · rates last 20Southampton last 5
2W 2D 1L
Derby last 5
1W 1D 3L
Southampton points per game
1.9
Derby points per game
0.7
Southampton scored
1.8
Derby scored
0.9
Southampton conceded
0.9
Derby conceded
2.0
Southampton goals in game
2.7
Derby goals in game
2.9
Southampton opponents per game
1.3
Derby opponents per game
1.4
Southampton over 2.5
65%
Derby over 2.5
65%
Southampton both scored
75%
Derby both scored
65%
Southampton first half goals
1.2
Derby first half goals
1.6
Southampton second half goals
1.5
Derby second half goals
1.3
Southampton vs Derby head to head
2 meetingsMeetings
2
Goals per meeting
2.5
Over 2.5
1 of 2
Both scored
2 of 2
| Date | Match | Score | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Southampton v Derby | 2–1 | 3 |
| 2025-10-04 | Derby v Southampton | 1–1 | 2 |
Southampton picks we published
newest first| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | Preston vs Southampton | Over 2.5 | 1.62 | 1:0 | LOSS |
| 3 Nov | West Brom vs Southampton | Over 2.5 | 1.73 | 1:1 | LOSS |
| 31 Oct | Southampton vs QPR | Over 2.5 | 1.57 | 4:1 | WIN |
| 24 Oct | West Ham vs Southampton | Over 2.5 | 1.50 | 2:3 | WIN |
Derby picks we published
newest first| Date | Match | Pick | Odds | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov | Derby vs Bolton | Over 2.5 | 1.73 | 3:1 | WIN |
| 3 Nov | Derby vs Norwich | Over 2.5 | 1.73 | 0:4 | WIN |
| 31 Oct | Millwall vs Derby | Millwall to win | 1.62 | 4:1 | WIN |
| 24 Oct | Sheffield United vs Derby | Sheffield United to win | 1.76 | 1:1 | LOSS |
Why
01Southampton is inconsistent: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 5. Scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.0 per game.
02Derby is in poor form: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in the last 5. Scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.2 per game.
03Last 2 meetings: Southampton 1, 1 draw, Derby 0. Derby have not won any of them.
HOW WE PRICE THISTrust is built from the market price of one book with that book's margin stripped out. The margin on this match is 5.63%. The price and the trust come from the same book, so the odds you see are odds you can actually take. What we show is the cleanest trust that exists for this match, plus the context around it.